1-1: Final SO (NY). 38-21: Shots (NY-SEA). 14-3: HD (NY-SEA). +2.31: Schroeder GSAx This was the rare game where the chance-creation gap on the model's read pulls in a single direction at near-blowout levels and the actual scoreboard never gets out of single digits. New York generated 38 shots and 3.31 xG against Seattle's 21 and 1.51. The high-danger split was 14 to 3, the territorial share was 68% Corsi for the Sirens, and the second-period chance distribution alone produced multiple in-tight one-timers. None of that converted into more than a single regulation goal. Corinne Schroeder posted +2.31 GSAx , the model essentially saying she was worth two extra goals of save value above what an average goaltender produces on the same workload, and the game went to a shootout tied 1-1. Two 0.10 xG goals decided regulation Both regulation goals were essentially the same shot. Alex Carpenter opened the scoring at P2 2:51 with a 0.10 xG wrister at 5-on-5; Sarah Fillier answered late in the third, P3 16:25, on a 0.10 xG 5-on-5 attempt. Both were the kind of mid-quality look the average PWHL shooter buries around 10% of the time. Neither team's higher-percentage chances on the night went in. New York alone had four attempts the model graded above 0.15 xG and Schroeder stopped every one of them. Schroeder, decomposed Corinne Schroeder faced 38 shots worth 3.31 xG in regulation and overtime, and conceded one. That is +2.31 goals saved above expectation in a single appearance. To put that in context: the per-game GSAx leaders across a full PWHL season tend to live in the +0.4 to +0.6 range. A +2.0 night sits in the top 1-2% of single-game starts. Carpenter's goal was the lone shot that beat her, on a chance the model considered roughly five times less dangerous than the highest-xG attempt Schroeder turned away. On the New York end, Kayle Osborne had a quieter night by volume: 21 shots faced for 1.51 xG against. She conceded the Carpenter goal at 0.10 xG, finished at +0.51 GSAx , and otherwise didn't have to do much. The game was a workload asymmetry from the opening faceoff. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 2:51 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.11 · NY 0, SEA 1. P3 16:25 · Sarah Fillier · xG 0.12 · NY 1, SEA 1. Shootout · New York wins · NY 2, SEA 1 New York's looks above 0.10 xG Every Sirens attempt the model graded above the 10% scoring-probability threshold. The list runs eight deep, with one goal (Fillier's 0.10 tying marker just clears the bar) and seven shots that didn't beat Schroeder. That is the analytical evidence for the shots-and-chances story: they generated, they didn't finish, the goalie was the obstacle. P1 5:50 · Jaime Bourbonnais · xG 0.26. P1 16:16 · Casey O'Brien · xG 0.19. P2 3:31 · Kristin O'Neill · xG 0.19. P4 1:47 · Casey O'Brien · xG 0.17. P3 16:52 · Elle Hartje · xG 0.17. P3 16:52 · Elle Hartje · xG 0.16. P1 14:21 · Casey O'Brien · xG 0.16. P3 16:52 · Maddi Wheeler · xG 0.14 What this read isn't Not a claim Seattle was the better team and got robbed. They were not. By every chance-creation measure the model produces, New York was the dominant attacker. They simply didn't beat Schroeder enough to win in regulation, and the shootout is its own variance bucket.. Not a claim Corinne Schroeder is on this trajectory every night. A +2.0 GSAx start is an outlier, and outlier-shaped goalie performances do not repeat on demand. The right test is the season-long save-percentage profile against expected; one start is one data point.. Not a single-game indictment of New York's finishing. Going 1-for-14 on high-danger looks is bad on this night, but high-danger conversion rates also mean-revert hard. The Sirens' shot-creation profile here is what you want; finishing is the variance layer on top.. Not a claim the model misjudges shootouts. Shootout outcomes are almost orthogonal to in-game chance quality, and the model makes no claim about them. The 5-on-5 read is what the model is for. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Shootout shots are not part of GSAx.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/99 .