0-3: Final (MTL). 39-26: Shots (OTT-MTL). 3.43-2.57: xG ex-EN (OTT-MTL). +3.43: Abstreiter GSAx Ottawa's home shot count was 39. Their Corsi share at 5-on-5 was 64%. They generated 11 high-danger chances and the model graded their in-play offence at 3.43 xG. They scored zero goals. Montreal's three-goal line on the score sheet inflates with the late empty-netter (0.99 xG by itself); strip it and the Victoire produced 2.57 xG of in-play offence to Ottawa's 3.43, with 12 high-danger chances of their own. The shape of the chance distribution was actually fairly even on quality. The shape of the goalie distribution was not. Abstreiter, decomposed Sandra Abstreiter faced 39 shots worth 3.43 xG and conceded zero. That is +3.43 goals saved above expectation in a single appearance, sitting in the top 1-2% of single-game starts across a PWHL season. The model expected Ottawa's chances to produce roughly three goals; it got none of them. Eleven of the shots Abstreiter saw were graded as high-danger looks. Eleven saves on those alone. Gwyneth Philips on the other end stopped 23 of 25 live shots worth 2.57 xG, finishing at +0.57 GSAx . That is an above-average performance against a heavy workload. Montreal's late empty-netter from Kaitlin Willoughby is excluded from the line, as is standard for goalie evaluation. The story isn't her save total. It's the gap between the two goaltenders' nights against comparable workloads. Two regulation goals on 0.24 combined xG Montreal scored both regulation goals in a span of 2:52 in the second period. Kaitlin Willoughby opened the scoring at P2 6:21 with a 0.08 xG wrister, the kind of shot that scores roughly one time in twelve. Abby Roque added a 0.15 xG 5-on-4 tip-in at P2 9:13. Combined, that is 0.24 xG of expectation against two actual goals, finishing about eight times above what the model said the chances should produce. Willoughby closed the scoring at P3 19:17 with the empty-netter from her own zone, the model's highest-priced shot of either team's night. Ottawa's power-play problem The Charge had 5 power-play opportunities . They scored 0 . Ten minutes of 5-on-4 time against a structured kill produced no goals, and against Abstreiter on this kind of night, the in-tight high-danger chances they did create off the 5-on-4 ran into the same wall as everything else. Montreal's power play was 1-for-5, with the lone conversion accounting for one of the two regulation goals. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 6:21 · Kaitlin Willoughby · xG 0.08 · OTT 0, MTL 1. P2 9:13 · Abby Roque (PP) · xG 0.18 · OTT 0, MTL 2. P3 19:17 · Kaitlin Willoughby (EN) · xG 0.00 · OTT 0, MTL 3 Ottawa's looks above 0.10 xG Every Ottawa attempt the model graded above the 10% scoring-probability threshold. None of them went in. The list is the analytical evidence for the shots-and-chances story: the Charge generated, they didn't finish, and the goalie was the obstacle on every look that mattered. P2 5:08 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.23. P1 9:30 · Brianne Jenner · xG 0.22. P2 3:51 · Emily Clark · xG 0.22. P1 17:13 · Ronja Savolainen · xG 0.17. P1 16:18 · Sarah Wozniewicz · xG 0.16. P3 3:25 · Emily Clark · xG 0.16 What this read isn't Not a claim Montreal was the better team and got robbed of a closer game. The opposite: Ottawa's chance creation was the better process and the scoreline went the other way. The Victoire generated their own high-danger looks, but they did not control play.. Not a claim Sandra Abstreiter is on this trajectory every night. A +3.2 GSAx outing is in the top 1-2% of starts across a season. Outlier-shaped goalie performances do not repeat on demand. The right diagnostic is the rolling save-percentage profile across her next several appearances.. Not a single-game indictment of Ottawa's finishing. Going 0-for-11 on high-danger chances is bad on this night, but the conversion rate also mean-reverts hard. The Charge's shot-creation profile here is what you want; finishing is the variance layer on top.. Not a model failure. A 60-40 favourite getting shut out by an outlier goalie performance is well within the variance of single-game outcomes. The model predicts the chance distribution, not which mid-quality look the goalie stops. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/97 .