1-2: Final (TOR). 29-24: Shots (OTT-TOR). 3-8: HD (OTT-TOR). +0.66: Kirk GSAx This was a low-event game where the shot totals and the chance-quality split disagreed. Ottawa took 29 shots to Toronto's 24 and pushed Corsi to 51%. Toronto generated more high-danger chances (8 to 3) from a smaller volume of attempts, and the model's xG totals came out within 0.07 of each other (Ottawa 1.66, Toronto 1.60). What the score reflects isn't an Ottawa loss on territory; it's a Toronto win on shot location. Toronto's two-player goal sheet Both Toronto goals featured the same two skaters. Maggie Connors opened the scoring at P1 3:34 with a 0.28 xG wrister, assisted by Blayre Turnbull and Claire Dalton . Less than a minute into the third period, Dalton returned the favour: 0.22 xG wrister at P3 0:57 for the eventual game-winner, assisted by Connors and Turnbull. Two goals, four points, three skaters carrying every Toronto entry on the scoresheet. The point-share concentration is the kind of read that tells you which line tilted the game without needing to look at shift charts. Ottawa's tying goal: a 0.03 xG wrister Fanuza Kadirova 's tying goal at P1 18:34 was the lowest-quality scoring shot of either team's night. The model priced it at 0.03 xG , the kind of attempt that beats an average PWHL goalie roughly one time in thirty. The Charge generated chances all night and the one that found space was nowhere near their best look. That is single-game variance behaving exactly as you'd expect: low-percentage shots go in sometimes, and on this night it was the only one that did. Goaltending, decomposed Raygan Kirk stopped 28 of 29 live shots worth 1.66 xG, finishing at +0.66 GSAx . An above-average single-game line, anchored by the saves on Ottawa's three high-danger looks that didn't beat her. Gwyneth Philips faced 24 shots worth 1.60 xG, conceded two, and finished at -0.40 GSAx . Both goals against her were 0.20-plus xG attempts (the Connors and Dalton wristers), the kind of shots a goaltender is expected to give up at this xG distribution. She wasn't the reason Ottawa lost; her workload of high-danger chances was simply higher than the other end's. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 3:34 · Maggie Connors · xG 0.27 · OTT 0, TOR 1. P1 18:34 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.02 · OTT 1, TOR 1. P3 0:57 · Claire Dalton · xG 0.21 · OTT 1, TOR 2 Toronto's looks above 0.10 xG Every Toronto attempt the model graded above the 10% scoring-probability threshold. Two of them went in (the Connors and Dalton wristers); the rest are a snapshot of where their offence pressured. P3 11:10 · Renata Fast · xG 0.17. P2 5:43 · Emma Woods · xG 0.11. P3 15:02 · Emma Maltais · xG 0.11 What this read isn't Not a claim Ottawa was the better team and got robbed. They weren't. Toronto won the high-danger battle and took both their best looks; Ottawa's only goal was a sub-0.05 xG attempt that beat the run of expected probability.. Not a claim Fanuza Kadirova 's goal was undeserved. A 0.03 xG shot scoring is a normal data point in a sample of one game. The Charge generated dozens of attempts; one of them found its way through. That is what the variance around the model looks like in practice.. Not a single-line indictment of Gwyneth Philips . A -0.3 GSAx night against eight high-danger chances faced is a reasonable workload-adjusted result. The goalie duel did go Toronto's way by about a goal of expectation, but neither performance was anywhere near the tails.. Not a claim Ottawa's power play is broken. 0-for-4 is a small sample on a quiet night. Power-play conversion mean-reverts hard; one bad look at the man-advantage isn't a unit diagnosis. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/96 .