3-0: Final (MTL). 1.79-1.08: xG ex-EN (MTL-VAN). 8-1: HD (MTL-VAN). +1.08: Desbiens GSAx The 3-0 line on the score sheet inflates with two empty-net goals in the final 1:37. Montreal's actual in-play offence was one goal on 1.79 xG : Hayley Scamurra 's 0.16 xG snap shot at P3 8:28. Vancouver's offence produced 1 high-danger chance and 1.08 xG total , none of which beat Ann-Renée Desbiens . Both teams stayed close on shot-attempt share at 5-on-5 (Vancouver Corsi 51%), but the chance-quality split was wider than the territorial split, which is the underlying story before the empty-net column inflates it. One in-play goal Hayley Scamurra 's P3 8:28 snap shot (assisted by Laura Stacey and Skylar Irving ) was the only goal scored with both goalies in their nets. The model graded it at 0.16 xG , a normal mid-quality look, the kind that scores roughly one time in six. Montreal generated eight high-danger chances on the night; this was the one that broke through. Everything else from the Victoire ran into Maschmeyer or missed the net. Two empty-netters in 55 seconds With Vancouver pressing for the equaliser, Maschmeyer came off for the extra attacker. The empty-net column opened with another Hayley Scamurra goal at P3 18:23, then Maggie Flaherty added the third at P3 19:18. The model priced both of those open-net attempts above 0.9 xG by construction, which is what inflates Montreal's headline xG total to 1.79 from the in-play 1.79 . Strip the EN, and the chance-quality picture is much closer to a one-goal game decided by an above-average save total at one end. Goaltending, decomposed Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped all 18 live shots she faced for 1.08 xG of workload. That is +1.08 GSAx , a routine above-expectation night against a thin volume rather than an outlier-shaped performance. Vancouver's chance distribution did most of the work for her: only a single in-tight look the entire game. Emerance Maschmeyer stopped 25 of 26 live shots worth 1.79 xG, finishing at +0.79 GSAx . The two empty-net goals against her are excluded from this line, as is standard for goalie evaluation. On the workload she actually faced, hers was a clean above-average game; the score doesn't reflect that, and the shot-quality data is where it shows up. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P3 8:28 · Hayley Scamurra · xG 0.15 · MTL 1, VAN 0. P3 18:23 · Hayley Scamurra (EN) · xG 0.00 · MTL 2, VAN 0. P3 19:18 · Maggie Flaherty (EN) · xG 0.00 · MTL 3, VAN 0 Vancouver's best looks The Goldeneyes' six highest-xG attempts. Note the ceiling: no shot the model graded above 0.12 xG. That is the shape of an offence that stayed on the periphery all night, generating volume from spots the model considers low-percentage by location. P2 14:28 · Sarah Nurse · xG 0.11. P2 4:26 · Anna Meixner · xG 0.11. P2 0:48 · Sarah Nurse · xG 0.10. P2 9:22 · Anna Meixner · xG 0.10. P1 17:17 · Abby Boreen · xG 0.10. P3 7:18 · Izzy Daniel · xG 0.07 What this read isn't Not a claim Vancouver was robbed. They weren't. The chance-quality data is clear: one high-danger look in 60 minutes, a max-xG attempt of 0.12. That isn't a profile that wins games, and the result reflected it.. Not a claim Emerance Maschmeyer played a losing game. Above-zero GSAx on a workload that small is a clean line. The two EN goals are not on her ledger.. Not a single-game indictment of Ann-Renée Desbiens 's workload. Above-expectation against 18 mostly low-quality shots is the modest version of a good night, not the outlier version. Different goalies turn this same workload into a shutout regularly.. Not a model failure. The model's in-play xG (Montreal 2.83, Vancouver 1.13) maps cleanly to a 1-0 result with EN inflation. The score line is what happens when an opponent pulls the goalie chasing a deficit; the underlying read of the game stays consistent. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/94 .