2-0: Final (OTT). 6-4: HD (OTT-SEA). 0/7: Seattle PP. +1.69: Philips GSAx This was a heavy special-teams night that produced no special-teams goals on either side. Seattle drew 7 power-play opportunities , the most either team has seen in our recent reviews. They generated 11 shots and 0.79 xG across the combined 14 minutes of 5-on-4 time. None of those chances beat Gwyneth Philips . Ottawa didn't convert their own 5 opportunities either, and the game came down to two even-strength goals from the Charge on shots the model graded under 0.16 xG. Seven Seattle power plays, 0.79 xG The Torrent's PP unit got volume but not the in-tight look that wins a power play. The model's highest-xG 5-on-4 attempt for Seattle was a 0.17 Alex Carpenter look at P3 0:28; she also had two more PP attempts above 0.08 xG. Across the 11 5-on-4 shots, Seattle averaged 0.072 xG per shot , well below the league-average PP shot xG. Translation: a lot of perimeter looks, very few one-time chances from the slot. A power play that good a shooting opportunity should clear the 0.10 xG-per-shot bar; this one didn't. Ottawa's two even-strength goals Sarah Wozniewicz opened the scoring at P1 9:09 with a 0.13 xG wrister at 5-on-5, the kind of shot that scores roughly one time in eight. Peyton Hemp added the insurance at P2 18:37 on a 0.16 xG wrister, this one with 1:23 left in the second period to take the score to 2-0. Neither was a high-danger one-timer. The Charge generated six high-danger chances on the night and didn't need any of them; mid-quality conversion was enough. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips stopped all 25 live shots she faced for 1.69 xG of workload. That is +1.69 GSAx . The 11 Seattle power-play shots are bundled inside that workload, which is part of why the GSAx number lands where it does. Philips made the saves that kept the kill clean. Corinne Schroeder on the other end stopped 26 of 28 live shots worth 2.36 xG, finishing at +0.36 GSAx . Both goalies came out positive on the model. The shutout happened because the Charge had two more goals to give, not because either goaltender played a losing line. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 9:09 · Sarah Wozniewicz · xG 0.12 · OTT 1, SEA 0. P2 18:37 · Peyton Hemp · xG 0.14 · OTT 2, SEA 0 Seattle's looks above 0.08 xG The six chances Seattle generated that the model graded above the 8% scoring-probability threshold. None of them beat Philips. Three came on the power play, three at 5-on-5, and the volume sits in roughly the same 0.10-to-0.22 xG band; no breakaway, no broken-coverage in-tight one-timer. P3 8:15 · Theresa Schafzahl · xG 0.23. P3 0:28 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.18. P1 18:05 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.17. P2 11:23 · Hilary Knight · xG 0.14. P2 6:05 · Hilary Knight · xG 0.11. P3 16:53 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.10 What this read isn't Not a claim Seattle's power play is broken. Seven opportunities is enough volume to read into, but 0.79 xG of generation across 14 minutes of 5-on-4 isn't a unit-level diagnosis on its own. Power-play conversion is noisy on small samples; the right test is the rolling profile across the next several games.. Not a claim Corinne Schroeder played a losing game. She finished above expected. The Ottawa goals were on shots the model said she should give up roughly 12 to 16 percent of the time; both finding the net is a normal data point, not a goalie failure.. Not a claim Ottawa's offence dominated. They generated more high-danger chances than Seattle but produced lower territorial possession (43% Corsi). The Charge chose their spots well rather than running the play.. Not a model failure. A 60-40 chance-quality favourite winning 2-0 with a +1.75 GSAx night from their goalie is exactly the kind of single-game outcome the model says is most likely. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/93 .