4-1: Final (SEA). 2.86-1.47: xG (NY-SEA). 10-7: HD (NY-SEA). +1.86: Schroeder GSAx By every chance-creation measure the model produces, New York was the better team. The Sirens out-shot the Torrent 30 to 20 , out-chanced them 10 to 7 in high-danger looks, posted 63% Corsi at 5-on-5, and finished the game with 2.86 xG to Seattle's 1.47. None of it converted into goals at the rate the model expected. Seattle banged in three first-period goals on a thin volume of mid-quality shots and Corinne Schroeder took care of the rest. Three Seattle goals in P1 on 0.28 combined xG Seattle's run came inside nine minutes of the first period. Theresa Schafzahl opened the scoring at P1 10:33 with a 0.09 xG wrister; Danielle Serdachny added a 0.08 xG backhand at P1 14:25; and Cayla Barnes closed the period with a 0.13 xG 5-on-4 wrister at P1 19:34. Three goals on 0.28 combined xG in 9:01 of game-clock . The model says that sequence of shots scores roughly one goal in expectation; Seattle scored three. By the first intermission the Sirens were down by what the underlying chance-quality split would suggest is around a tenth of a goal of real disadvantage, behind by three on the score sheet. Schroeder, decomposed Corinne Schroeder stopped 29 of 30 live shots worth 2.86 xG. That is +1.86 GSAx , the kind of single-game start that lives in the top few percent of appearances across a PWHL season. The lone shot that beat her was Sarah Fillier 's 0.29 xG wrister in the third, the highest-xG attempt of either team's night. Kayle Osborne faced 20 live shots worth 1.47 xG and conceded four. GSAx came out at -2.53 , a heavy negative number that mostly reflects the gap between the model's expectation on those four shots and the goals they became. Three of the four were under 0.14 xG, one was under 0.03. The save process underneath the GSAx number was much closer to expected than the headline suggests. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 10:33 · Theresa Schafzahl · xG 0.09 · SEA 1, NY 0. P1 14:25 · Danielle Serdachny · xG 0.08 · SEA 2, NY 0. P1 19:34 · Cayla Barnes (PP) · xG 0.10 · SEA 3, NY 0. P3 5:48 · Sarah Fillier · xG 0.29 · SEA 3, NY 1. P3 9:48 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.02 · SEA 4, NY 1 New York's looks above 0.10 xG Every Sirens attempt the model graded above the 10% scoring-probability threshold. Fillier's tying-attempt wrister sits at the top; the rest are the chances Schroeder turned away. The presence of multiple shots above 0.10 xG is the analytical evidence for the shots-and-chances story: they generated, they didn't finish, and the goalie was the obstacle. P3 5:48 · Sarah Fillier (goal) · xG 0.29. P3 5:47 · Sarah Fillier · xG 0.26. P2 6:31 · Anna Bargman · xG 0.18. P3 2:11 · Clair DeGeorge · xG 0.17. P1 16:43 · Kayla Vespa · xG 0.15. P1 16:04 · Jaime Bourbonnais · xG 0.15 What this read isn't Not a claim Corinne Schroeder is on this trajectory every night. A +2.0 GSAx start is in the top 1-2% of appearances. The right diagnostic is the rolling save-percentage profile across her next several games, not extrapolation from one outlier outing.. Not a claim Kayle Osborne played poorly in a structural way. A -2.5 GSAx night against four goals where three were under 0.14 xG is mostly variance landing on her side of the ledger. The save process was much closer to expected than the score suggests.. Not a claim New York deserved to win and got robbed. The chance-quality data points strongly toward the Sirens, but goals are what win games, and finishing variance on small samples can land anywhere. The result reflected a Schroeder outlier and a Seattle finishing run; both are normal data points on rare occasions.. Not a claim Seattle's first-period scoring is repeatable. Three goals in 9:01 on 0.31 combined xG is finishing variance and doesn't fold into expectations for the next game. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/88 .