3-0: Final (MTL). 2.02-1.41: xG (MTL-MIN). 9-6: HD (MTL-MIN). +1.41: Desbiens GSAx For 39 minutes and 19 seconds, neither team scored. Montreal had the better of the chance battle ( 55% Corsi , 9-6 in high-danger chances, 2.02 xG to 1.41) but couldn't break through. Catherine Dubois 's slap shot at P2 19:19 finally opened the scoring with 41 seconds left in the second period, and Montreal added two more in the third to finish it 3-0. Three goals in 10:38 Once the seal broke, the scoring came in a compressed window. Catherine Dubois 's opener was a 0.07 xG slap shot, the kind the model says scores roughly one time in fifteen. Hayley Scamurra added a 0.20 xG wrister at P3 5:03; Lina Ljungblom closed the scoring with a 0.12 xG snap shot at P3 9:57. Combined: 0.34 xG of expectation across three scoring shots, three actual goals . None of the three was a true high-danger one-timer; all three found space against a Minnesota defence that had kept the game scoreless until 41 seconds remained in the second. Goaltending, decomposed Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped all 21 live shots she faced for 1.41 xG of workload. That is +1.41 GSAx , an above-average single-game line on a moderate volume. Six of those shots were Minnesota high-danger looks; saving all six was the decisive piece of the night, given how tight the chance-quality split actually was. Maddie Rooney faced 28 live shots worth 2.02 xG and conceded three. GSAx came out at -0.98 . Two of the three goals against her were under 0.13 xG, the third the Scamurra wrister at 0.20. None was a structural breakdown; the difference in the goalie duel was at the other end. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 19:19 · Catherine Dubois · xG 0.06 · MTL 1, MIN 0. P3 5:03 · Hayley Scamurra · xG 0.16 · MTL 2, MIN 0. P3 9:57 · Lina Ljungblom · xG 0.12 · MTL 3, MIN 0 Minnesota's looks above 0.08 xG Every Frost attempt the model graded above the 8% scoring-probability threshold. None went in. The list shows where Minnesota generated and where Desbiens turned them away. P2 10:43 · Britta Curl-Salemme · xG 0.19. P2 13:39 · Sidney Morin · xG 0.16. P1 5:23 · Katy Knoll · xG 0.14. P3 7:36 · Kelly Pannek · xG 0.12. P3 13:44 · Taylor Heise · xG 0.10. P1 9:31 · Britta Curl-Salemme · xG 0.09 What this read isn't Not a claim Minnesota deserved a different result. Montreal won the chance-quality battle by a clear if not enormous margin, and the goalie at the other end stopped what they did generate. The result reflected the underlying read.. Not a claim Maddie Rooney played a losing game. A slightly negative GSAx night against three goals all under 0.21 xG is mostly variance landing on her side. The save process was much closer to expected than the score line suggests.. Not a claim the Montreal scoring run is repeatable. Three goals on 0.39 combined xG in 12:38 is finishing variance and shouldn't fold into expectations for the next game.. Not a claim either special-teams unit is meaningful here. One opportunity each on the night, both unconverted, is too small a sample to read into. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/87 .