2-0: Final (BOS). 2.95-2.35: xG ex-EN (BOS-VAN). 11-5: HD (BOS-VAN). +2.35 / +1.95: GSAx (BOS / VAN) This was a tight game played at both ends of the rink. Vancouver out-shot Boston 35 to 29 and held 58% of shot attempts at 5-on-5, but the chance-quality split was the inverse: Boston had 11 high-danger chances to Vancouver's 5, and the model graded the Fleet's in-play offence at 2.95 xG against the Goldeneyes' 2.35. Both goaltenders saved well above expected. The result came down to one tip in the second period and an empty-netter in the final 22 seconds. A double-outlier goalie game Aerin Frankel stopped all 35 live shots she faced for 2.35 xG of workload, finishing at +2.35 GSAx . That is in the top 1-2% of single-game starts. Vancouver's five high-danger chances did not beat her, and the lone regulation-time scoring chance the Goldeneyes generated above 0.20 xG ran into a clean save. Kristen Campbell on the other end stopped 27 of 28 live shots worth 2.95 xG, finishing at +1.95 GSAx . Boston's 11 high-danger chances were the workload she had to handle; ten of them did not score. The empty-net goal is excluded from her line. By any measure, this was a game where both crease performances were several standard deviations above average. Combined GSAx across the two goalies was +4.31 . That number normally sits near zero by construction across an average game; +4 is the kind of double-outlier that produces low-event tight scores like this one. When both goalies play above expected at the same time, the scoreboard tends to lag the chance distribution at both ends. The single in-play goal Laura Kluge 's tip at P2 9:03 was the only goal scored with both goalies in their nets. The model priced it at 0.15 xG , a normal mid-quality look, the kind that scores roughly one time in seven. Boston generated ten more high-danger chances across the rest of the game and converted on none of them, with Campbell saving every one. Susanna Tapani 's empty-netter at P3 19:38 was the only other puck to find a Vancouver net all night, and that one didn't have a goalie in it. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 9:03 · Laura Kluge · xG 0.15 · BOS 1, VAN 0. P3 19:38 · Susanna Tapani (EN) · xG 0.00 · BOS 2, VAN 0 Vancouver's looks above 0.07 xG Every Goldeneyes attempt the model graded above the 7% scoring-probability threshold. None of them beat Frankel. The shape of the distribution is consistent with the high-danger split: Vancouver generated volume but the chance ceiling stayed below where they needed it to be. P3 7:13 · Sarah Nurse · xG 0.33. P3 6:28 · Hannah Miller · xG 0.22. P3 7:12 · Sarah Nurse · xG 0.12. P2 12:02 · Sophie Jaques · xG 0.10. P2 11:32 · Jenn Gardiner · xG 0.09. P3 6:58 · Hannah Miller · xG 0.08 What this read isn't Not a claim Vancouver was robbed. They lost the high-danger battle 11 to 5 and the chance-quality split. The Corsi advantage came from perimeter volume; the goals didn't come because the shots that did get to the net weren't the dangerous ones.. Not a claim Kristen Campbell should be expected at +1.8 GSAx every night. An above-1.5 single-game start is in the top few percent of appearances. The right diagnostic is the rolling save profile across her next several games, not extrapolation from one outlier.. Not a single-game indictment of Aerin Frankel 's defence in front of her. 35 shots is a heavy workload by volume, but the high-danger split was 5-to-11 in Boston's favour. The defensive structure kept the dangerous looks down; the goalie cleaned up the rest.. Not a model failure. A near-even underlying chance-quality game ending 2-0 with both goalies above +1.5 GSAx is exactly the kind of single-game outcome the model rates as most likely under those goaltending conditions. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/86 .