2-1: Final OT (OTT). 1.53-1.17: xG (OTT-MTL). 6-4: HD (OTT-MTL). +0.17 / -0.47: GSAx (OTT / MTL) This was a low-event regulation game with not much chance separation. Ottawa carried 57% Corsi at 5-on-5 and won the high-danger battle 6-4 , but the model graded total chance quality at 1.53 xG to 1.17, well under three combined goals of expectation in 60 minutes. Both regulation goals were under 0.12 xG. Tied 1-1 after sixty, Rebecca Leslie 's 5-on-4 wrister 12 seconds into overtime took it. Three goals on 0.23 combined xG Gabbie Hughes 's 0.11 xG opener at P2 5:37 broke a scoreless first period and a half. Nicole Gosling tied it for Montreal at P2 11:20 with a 0.04 xG wrister , the lowest-quality scoring shot of the night. Then Rebecca Leslie 's 0.08 xG OT winner made it three goals on a combined 0.23 xG of expectation. None of the three was the kind of in-tight look that scores at high rates; this was a game where neither team generated their way to a clear advantage and the result fell on which mid-quality shot found space first. Twelve seconds into overtime Ottawa entered overtime on a fresh 5-on-4 power play (a Montreal penalty had carried over from the end of regulation). Rebecca Leslie took a feed from Brianne Jenner 12 seconds in and wristed it past Desbiens to end the game. The model priced the shot at 0.08 xG, a normal mid-quality look. Twelve seconds is not enough OT time to read into anything about open-ice play; the goal arrived because the special-teams advantage carried into the extra period, not because Ottawa had time to set up a structured attack. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips stopped 20 of 21 live shots worth 1.17 xG, finishing at +0.17 GSAx . The lone Montreal goal she gave up was a 0.04 xG attempt; on a different night, that one holds out and the game ends in regulation. Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped 26 of 28 live shots worth 1.53 xG, finishing at -0.47 GSAx . Both goals against her were under 0.12 xG. The aggregate negative GSAx is on the right side of zero by accident of finishing variance, not a save-process problem. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 5:37 · Gabbie Hughes · xG 0.10 · OTT 1, MTL 0. P2 11:20 · Nicole Gosling · xG 0.03 · OTT 1, MTL 1. P4 0:12 · Rebecca Leslie (OT, PP) · xG 0.10 · OTT 2, MTL 1 Ottawa's six best looks Every Charge attempt the model graded above the 6% scoring-probability threshold. Two of them went in (Hughes in regulation and Leslie in OT). The ceiling across all six is below 0.20 xG: a low-event night where neither team produced a true high-danger one-timer. P1 11:58 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.19. P1 12:03 · Sarah Wozniewicz · xG 0.13. P2 12:01 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.11. P1 8:58 · Ronja Savolainen · xG 0.11. P4 0:12 · Rebecca Leslie (goal) · xG 0.10. P2 5:37 · Gabbie Hughes (goal) · xG 0.10 What this read isn't Not a claim Montreal deserved to win. They didn't lose the chance battle by much, but they did lose it. The goal they scored was a sub-0.05 xG attempt that beat its own probability; in a tighter regulation finish, that's the goal that holds up.. Not a single-game indictment of either goaltender. Both finished within 0.5 GSAx of zero on a workload where every goal against was under 0.12 xG. The save process at both ends was close to expected; the difference came from one finished mid-quality look on the power play after the buzzer.. Not a claim Rebecca Leslie 's OT winner was a structural play. 5-on-4 special teams 12 seconds into overtime is not the same situation as 5-on-5 open-ice OT. The goal came on a carryover power-play opportunity; it doesn't speak to either team's open-ice OT process.. Not a claim Ottawa's power play won the game. They went 1-for-3 in regulation. The OT goal arrived on a fresh 5-on-4 carried over from the end of the third; it counts as a power-play conversion in the line items but reads better as a special-teams-aided OT decision. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included in goalie lines.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/85 .