3-0: Final (BOS). 64%: Boston Corsi. 9-6: HD (BOS-SEA). +2.36: Frankel GSAx Boston controlled this game from puck-drop. The Fleet out-shot Seattle 33 to 21 , posted 64% Corsi at 5-on-5, won the high-danger battle 9 to 6 , and finished with 3.28 xG to Seattle's 2.36. The three goals that beat Corinne Schroeder weren't the chances the model graded as the most dangerous Boston generated; they were three mid-quality wristers and a loose attempt that found space at the right moments. At the other end, Aerin Frankel closed out the shutout. Three goals on 0.31 combined xG The Fleet's three scoring shots were 0.13, 0.12, and 0.04 xG . Combined: 0.31 xG of expectation against three actual goals, which works out to 0.91 times expected on a per-shot basis. Abby Newhook opened the scoring at P1 8:06; Susanna Tapani made it 2-0 at P3 4:33; Haley Winn added the third 4:45 later on a 0.04 xG wrister, the lowest-quality scoring shot of the night. None of the three was a true high-danger one-timer; Boston had nine shots the model graded as high-danger looks and didn't convert any of those, but they didn't need to. Frankel, decomposed Aerin Frankel stopped all 21 live shots she faced for 2.36 xG of workload. That is +2.36 GSAx , an above-average single-game line on a moderate volume. Six of those shots were Seattle high-danger chances; she stopped all six, including the kind of in-tight looks that produce most of Seattle's scoring on a normal night. Corinne Schroeder faced 33 live shots worth 3.28 xG and conceded three. Her GSAx came out at +0.28 , essentially the model calling her workload almost exactly. The story isn't her save total. It's that Boston generated more shots than she could realistically be expected to stop on the model's chance-quality distribution, and three of them found space. Even special teams, no goals Both teams had four power-play opportunities. Both went 0-for-4. Boston's combined PP attempt produced 11 shots and 0.42 xG; Seattle's PP produced 5 shots and 0.31 xG. Neither converted, neither came close, and the special-teams ledger washed out at zero. The decision came at 5-on-5, where Boston's possession profile and finishing on mid-quality looks did the work. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 8:06 · Abby Newhook · xG 0.14 · BOS 1, SEA 0. P3 4:33 · Susanna Tapani · xG 0.14 · BOS 2, SEA 0. P3 9:18 · Haley Winn · xG 0.03 · BOS 3, SEA 0 Seattle's looks above 0.07 xG The Torrent's chances the model graded above the 7% scoring-probability threshold. None went in. The list shows where Seattle generated and where Frankel turned them away; the ceiling is below 0.30 xG, the shape of an offence that didn't get a true breakaway-grade look. P3 14:09 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.35. P1 0:28 · Theresa Schafzahl · xG 0.29. P1 13:25 · Natalie Snodgrass · xG 0.25. P1 13:16 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.17. P1 19:37 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.17. P1 19:31 · Theresa Schafzahl · xG 0.17 What this read isn't Not a claim Seattle was robbed. They lost the chance battle by every measure: shots, Corsi, high-danger count, and total xG. The score reflected the underlying read.. Not a claim Corinne Schroeder played a losing game. She finished above expected on the model. The three goals against her were on shots in the 0.04 to 0.13 xG range; her save process was clean. The losing variable was at the other end of the rink.. Not a claim Boston's finishing rate is repeatable. Three goals on a team xG below two is the kind of single-game finishing variance that fades on rolling samples. The chance-creation profile is the keeper here, not the conversion rate.. Not a claim either special-teams unit is broken. 0-for-4 on small samples is variance, and both PP units generated reasonable volume. One bad night against a structured kill isn't a unit-level diagnosis. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/84 .