3-1: Final (MIN). 2/4: Minnesota PP. 6-4: HD (MIN-VAN). +0.39: Rooney GSAx This game was close at 5-on-5 and decided on the power play. Vancouver held 51% Corsi at even strength, finishing within shot-attempt distance of Minnesota across the night. Where the chance-quality split opened up was on the power play. Minnesota generated 1.84 xG of in-play offence to Vancouver's 1.39, with the gap mostly coming from a 2-for-4 power play that produced both Frost goals before Mannon McMahon pulled Vancouver within one in the third. Two power-play goals on 0.25 combined xG Natalie Buchbinder opened the scoring at P1 14:02 on a 0.11 xG 5-on-4 attempt; Kelly Pannek added the second at P2 19:30 on a 0.14 xG 5-on-4 attempt with 30 seconds left in the second period. Combined: 0.25 xG of expectation across two power-play scoring shots, two actual goals . Minnesota's PP went 2 for 4 , a 50% conversion rate well above league average. Vancouver's 0-for-4 on the other side never produced the kind of 5-on-4 attempt that would have changed the special-teams ledger. Vancouver's pushback Down 2-0 and on the road for the third period, Vancouver pushed. Mannon McMahon cut the lead to 2-1 at P3 8:49 on a 0.13 xG backhand at 5-on-5. The Goldeneyes had nine more minutes of game-clock to find a tying goal and didn't generate the in-tight look they needed. With Vancouver pulling the goalie late, Britta Curl-Salemme cashed an empty-net attempt at P3 18:14 to set the final. The third-period scoring window stayed open long enough for one Vancouver goal and not for two. Goaltending, decomposed Maddie Rooney stopped 19 of 20 live shots worth 1.39 xG, finishing at +0.39 GSAx . The lone Vancouver goal she gave up was a 0.13 xG attempt; on the four high-danger chances Vancouver did generate, she stopped three. A modest above-expected line on a moderate workload, no outlier shape to it. Kristen Campbell stopped 20 of 22 live shots worth 1.84 xG, finishing at -0.16 GSAx . The two regulation goals against her were both on the power play; her even-strength save process was essentially clean. The empty-net goal is excluded from her line. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 14:02 · Natalie Buchbinder (PP) · xG 0.13 · MIN 1, VAN 0. P2 19:30 · Kelly Pannek (PP) · xG 0.16 · MIN 2, VAN 0. P3 8:49 · Mannon McMahon · xG 0.13 · MIN 2, VAN 1. P3 18:14 · Britta Curl-Salemme (EN) · xG 0.00 · MIN 3, VAN 1 Vancouver's looks above 0.06 xG Every Goldeneyes attempt the model graded above the 6% scoring-probability threshold. McMahon's tying-attempt backhand sits near the top; the rest are the chances Rooney turned away. The list is short and the ceiling is moderate, the analytical evidence for an offence that produced volume but not the in-tight high-danger looks that flip games. P2 9:22 · Sophie Jaques · xG 0.15. P3 2:18 · Izzy Daniel · xG 0.14. P3 19:30 · Tereza Vanišová · xG 0.14. P3 8:49 · Mannon McMahon (goal) · xG 0.13. P1 5:49 · Izzy Daniel · xG 0.12. P3 11:47 · Mannon McMahon · xG 0.12 What this read isn't Not a claim Vancouver was the better team and got robbed. They lost the high-danger battle and the in-play xG split. The Corsi share was within a couple of points of even, but the chance-quality data leans Minnesota.. Not a claim Minnesota's PP is on a hot streak. 2-for-4 on a small sample is variance around an average power play. The right diagnostic is the rolling conversion profile, not extrapolation from one game.. Not a single-game indictment of Kristen Campbell . Two PP goals against on shots in the 0.11-0.14 xG range is a clean save process line; the model's GSAx number reflects the workload-adjusted reality, not a save problem.. Not a model failure. A near-even chance-quality game decided by a special-teams swing is exactly the kind of single-game outcome the model rates as common when special teams diverges by two goals. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/83 .