5-0: Final (MIN). 2.55-0.94: xG (MIN-OTT). 12-5: HD (MIN-OTT). +0.94: Rooney GSAx This was a structural mismatch from puck-drop. Taylor Heise scored 27 seconds into the game on a 0.06 xG wrister, and Minnesota's offence never let up from there. The Frost generated 12 high-danger chances to Ottawa's 5 and 2.55 xG to 0.94 , despite Ottawa carrying slightly more shot-attempt share at 5-on-5 (Corsi 54%). The shutout on the other end was Maddie Rooney 's work; Ottawa never produced a chance the model graded above 0.20 xG. Three goals in 1:36 pulled the goalie After the early Heise marker, the game stayed at 1-0 for the next 14 minutes. Then Minnesota produced a three-goal burst inside 1:36 of game-clock : Grace Zumwinkle at P1 14:39 (0.14 xG), Kelly Pannek just 11 seconds later at P1 14:50 (0.22 xG), and Kaitlyn O'Donohoe at P1 16:15 (0.20 xG). Combined: 0.56 xG of expectation across the three scoring shots. Three goals on 0.56 xG is roughly 5x expected; finishing variance lands like that on rare days. The goal at 14:50 was the third on Gwyneth Philips , and Ottawa's starter came out after that sequence. Her line: 16 shots faced, 2 goals against, 1.58 xG of workload , finishing at -0.42 GSAx . The pull was sequence-driven: three goals in 1:36 against any goalie produces the change. The relief stint Gwyneth Philips came on after the Pannek goal and faced 8 live shots worth 0.97 xG over the rest of the game, conceding 3 (-2.03 GSAx). The save process settled the workload but Ottawa's offence couldn't close the gap. Minnesota added a fourth in P1 from Kaitlyn O'Donohoe and Kelly Pannek 's second goal of the night in the second period. Discipline and special teams Ottawa took 8 penalty minutes to Minnesota's 0. The Charge had 0 power-play opportunities of their own, which is to say none, while watching Minnesota's PP unit run four times. The PP didn't convert any of those, but the discipline gap meant Ottawa spent meaningful chunks of the game shorthanded without a counterbalance, and Minnesota's territorial pressure on those shorthanded sequences fed several of the in-tight high-danger looks the model graded. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 0:27 · Taylor Heise · xG 0.05 · MIN 1, OTT 0. P1 14:39 · Grace Zumwinkle · xG 0.12 · MIN 2, OTT 0. P1 14:50 · Kelly Pannek · xG 0.21 · MIN 3, OTT 0. P1 16:15 · Kaitlyn O'Donohoe · xG 0.19 · MIN 4, OTT 0. P2 15:46 · Kelly Pannek · xG 0.11 · MIN 5, OTT 0 Ottawa's looks above 0.05 xG Every Charge attempt the model graded above the 5% scoring-probability threshold. The list is short and the ceiling is very low: nothing above 0.20 xG. That is the shape of an offence that didn't get inside on Rooney all night. P2 18:04 · Peyton Hemp · xG 0.13. P3 12:08 · Alexa Vasko · xG 0.13. P1 11:15 · Peyton Hemp · xG 0.10. P2 11:53 · Peyton Hemp · xG 0.09. P2 4:15 · Emily Clark · xG 0.09. P1 10:40 · Alexa Vasko · xG 0.08 What this read isn't Not a single-game indictment of Gwyneth Philips . Three goals on eight shots is a brutal small-sample line, but Minnesota's three scoring attempts in the burst combined to 0.56 xG against her; one going in is normal, three is finishing variance landing on her side. The pull was process; the goalie change is what coaches do in a 4-0 game on the road regardless of save quality.. Not a claim Minnesota's finishing rate is repeatable. Five goals on 2.60 xG is roughly twice expected. The chance-creation profile (12 high-danger chances, 2.60 xG) is a strong process line; the conversion rate isn't a forecast.. Not a claim Ottawa is in a structural slump. One quiet game on chance generation against a Minnesota team that produced 12 high-danger looks is one data point. The right diagnostic is the rolling chance profile across the next several games.. Not a claim the discipline gap was the cause. Eight PIM and zero PP opportunities is a notable single-game number, but most of the damage was at 5-on-5; the Frost PP went 0-for-4 itself. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. When a team uses two goalies, each gets their own line.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/80 .