2-0: Final (TOR). 2.11-2.16: xG ex-EN (TOR-BOS). 0-0 / 5-5: PP (TOR-BOS). +2.16: Kirk GSAx This game spent 49 minutes scoreless. Toronto out-shot Boston 30 to 26 and held a small possession edge at 5-on-5 (Boston 48% Corsi). The chance-quality split once you strip the late empty-netter was close: 2.11 xG to 2.16 , high-danger 7 to 6. Both teams had five power-play opportunities apiece. Both went 0-for-5 . The game broke open at P3 8:59 on a Daryl Watts snap shot the model priced at 0.08 xG, and Raygan Kirk closed it out for the shutout. Ten power-play opportunities, zero goals Boston's PP unit produced 0.44 xG across 5 opportunities . Toronto's produced 0.35 xG across 5 opportunities . Both teams averaged below the league norm for power-play shot quality, and neither converted. Two of Boston's best chances of the night actually came on the penalty kill, including a 0.26 xG Aerin Frankel -style breakout look from a Boston defender that beat the Toronto kill but didn't beat Kirk. The special-teams ledger washed out at zero, and the game was always going to come down to a 5-on-5 conversion somewhere. The 5-on-5 goal that finally landed Daryl Watts 's snap shot at P3 8:59 was a 0.08 xG attempt at 5-on-5, the kind of mid-quality look the model says scores roughly one time in twelve. It went in. Blayre Turnbull added the empty-netter at P3 19:33 to take the score to 2-0. Two regulation shots scored on a night where Boston generated six high-danger chances of their own and didn't convert any of them; the game ran up against two above-average goalies and the conversion rate ran out of road. Goaltending, decomposed Raygan Kirk stopped all 26 live shots she faced for 2.16 xG of workload. That is +2.16 GSAx , in the top few percent of single-game starts. Six of those shots were Boston high-danger chances; she stopped all six. This is the kind of single-game line that decides a low-event road game. Aerin Frankel stopped 28 of 29 live shots worth 2.11 xG, finishing at +1.11 GSAx . The lone goal she gave up in regulation was Watts's 0.08 xG snap shot. Both ends played above expected; the shutout fell on the side that produced one more finished mid-quality look. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P3 8:59 · Daryl Watts · xG 0.09 · TOR 1, BOS 0. P3 19:33 · Blayre Turnbull (EN) · xG 0.00 · TOR 2, BOS 0 Boston's looks above 0.08 xG The Fleet's chances the model graded above the 8% scoring-probability threshold. None of them beat Kirk. The list shows where Boston generated and where the saves were; multiple shots above 0.16 xG, all stopped. P2 12:57 · Liz Schepers · xG 0.29. P2 0:45 · Susanna Tapani · xG 0.21. P1 18:59 · Hannah Brandt · xG 0.16. P1 2:46 · Shay Maloney · xG 0.15. P3 4:26 · Shay Maloney · xG 0.13. P2 12:56 · Shay Maloney · xG 0.13 What this read isn't Not a claim Boston deserved a different result. The chance-quality split was close enough that either side could have won, but Toronto's slightly better xG profile and the 1-0 conversion at 5-on-5 are how the model would forecast outcomes in this game.. Not a single-game indictment of Boston's PP. 0-for-5 with 0.44 xG of generation is a quiet night; the right diagnostic is the rolling profile across the next several games, not extrapolation from one outing.. Not a claim Raygan Kirk is on this trajectory every night. A +2.0 GSAx start sits in the top few percent of single-game appearances. Outlier-shaped goalie performances do not repeat on demand.. Not a model failure. A near-even underlying chance-quality game with both goalies above expected ending 1-0 in regulation plus an empty-netter is exactly the kind of low-scoring outcome the model rates as most likely under those conditions. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/79 .