2-0: Final (TOR). 1.47-2.06: xG ex-EN (TOR-SEA). 6-6: HD (TOR-SEA). +2.06: Kirk GSAx This game ran on a 56-minute lead. Blayre Turnbull scored four minutes in on a 0.09 xG wrister; nothing else found the net until Sara Hjalmarsson 's empty-net attempt at P3 19:52. Seattle out-shot Toronto 32 to 26 and held 56% Corsi at 5-on-5, but Toronto's chance-quality split landed slightly higher (in-play xG 1.47 to 2.06, high-danger 6 to 6). The decisive piece was Raygan Kirk 's shutout. The 4:00 goal that won it Blayre Turnbull 's wrister at P1 4:00 was a 0.09 xG attempt at 5-on-5, the kind of shot the model says scores roughly one time in eleven. It went in. Across the rest of regulation, Toronto generated five more high-danger chances and didn't convert any of them; Seattle generated six high-danger chances and didn't convert any of theirs. A single 0.09 xG shot held up as the only goal scored with both goalies in their nets. Kirk, decomposed Raygan Kirk stopped all 32 live shots she faced for 2.06 xG of workload. That is +2.06 GSAx , the kind of single-game line that lives in the top few percent of appearances. Six of Seattle's shots were high-danger chances; she stopped all six. The shutout did the work the chance-quality split couldn't quite do on its own. Hannah Murphy stopped 24 of 25 live shots worth 1.47 xG, finishing at +0.47 GSAx . The lone regulation goal she gave up was the Turnbull 0.09 xG wrister; the empty-net is excluded from her line. Both goalies played above expected. Kirk's outlier outing was the difference. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 4:00 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.07 · TOR 1, SEA 0. P3 19:52 · Sara Hjalmarsson (EN) · xG 0.00 · TOR 2, SEA 0 Seattle's looks above 0.07 xG The Torrent's chances the model graded above the 7% scoring-probability threshold. None of them beat Kirk. The list shows where Seattle generated and where the saves were; multiple shots above 0.15 xG, all stopped. P2 10:08 · Jessie Eldridge · xG 0.35. P3 6:17 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.23. P1 17:53 · Natalie Snodgrass · xG 0.18. P2 11:33 · Danielle Serdachny · xG 0.12. P2 18:59 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.11. P3 18:03 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.09 What this read isn't Not a claim Seattle was robbed. The chance-quality split was close enough that either team could have won, but Toronto produced the marginally better xG profile and Kirk closed the door. The result reflected the underlying read.. Not a claim Raygan Kirk is on this trajectory every night. A +2.0 GSAx start sits in the top few percent of appearances. Outlier-shaped goalie performances do not repeat on demand; the rolling save profile is the right diagnostic.. Not a single-game indictment of Hannah Murphy . One regulation goal on a 0.09 xG attempt with above-zero GSAx for the night is a clean save process line. The losing variable was at the other end of the rink.. Not a model failure. A near-even chance-quality game with an outlier goalie performance ending 1-0 plus an empty-netter is exactly the kind of single-game outcome the model rates as most likely under those conditions. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/77 .