2-6: Final (OTT). 1.31-2.53: xG (OTT-NYR). 0/4: OTT power play. -2.47: Philips GSAx New York outshot Ottawa 32 to 18 and outchanced them 2.53 to 1.31 in xG . The high-danger count finished 8 to 6 in the Sirens' favor. Both teams drew four power plays. New York converted two of theirs including a 5-on-3 in the first; Ottawa went 0-for-4 , generating 2 shots and 0.18 xG across the full eight minutes . Gwyneth Philips finished -2.47 GSAx on 31 non-empty-net shots. Losing every phase at once is how 2-6 scorelines tend to happen. The 15-second window that broke the game Brooke Hobson 's cross-check at P1 15:29 started Ottawa's special-teams night on the wrong foot. Fifteen seconds later Ronja Savolainen took an illegal-body-check minor and Ottawa was down two skaters. Taylor Girard converted the 5-on-3 at P1 17:10 , the third Sirens goal in less than four minutes. It was a 0.15 xG wrist shot, not a special chance on its own; the context was that Ottawa was already down two and chasing. The two quick penalties turned a 2-0 hole into 3-0 before the first intermission. Ottawa's power play never arrived Across 4 power plays Ottawa put two shots on net for a total of 0.18 xG . That works out to roughly 0.02 xG per power-play minute, the kind of number that suggests a unit that never got set up rather than one that got set up and missed. New York's penalty kill limited Ottawa to zero shots from the high-danger area through all four opportunities. The Sirens answered with a 0.42 xG, two-goal PP night of their own (2 of 4), and the special-teams ledger finished firmly red for Ottawa. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips faced 31 non-empty-net shots worth 2.53 xG and allowed five goals in live play for -2.47 GSAx . That's the save-process line of a rough night. None of the five goals she conceded in full-strength play was a high-xG look: Maddi Wheeler 's 0.23, Sarah Fillier 's 0.17, Taylor Girard 's 0.15 5-on-3 marker, her 0.12 second goal of the night, and Allyson Simpson 's 0.27 power-play wrister are all in the mid-quality band where save percentage usually sits near the expectation. Five of them beat her; the model's read is that the variance went against her in every bucket. Sarah Fillier 's empty-net backhand at P3 19:15 doesn't count against Philips in GSAx (the goalie wasn't on the ice), and it sits outside the main xG model too, under the public-analytics convention of reporting xGF excluding empty-net shots. It counts on the scoreboard and nowhere else in this post. At the other end, Kayle Osborne faced 18 shots worth 1.31 xG and allowed two goals for -0.69 GSAx . That's save-process flat on a quiet workload. Brianne Jenner 's response at P1 18:03 came right after the 5-on-3 goal, and Gabbie Hughes 's snap shot at P3 3:18 briefly cut the deficit to 3-2 before New York pulled away again. The Ottawa goals came on shots worth 0.17 and 0.13 xG, about what the model grades a capable finish from outside the slot at. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 13:14 · Maddi Wheeler · xG 0.22 · OTT 0, NYR 1. P1 14:51 · Sarah Fillier · xG 0.16 · OTT 0, NYR 2. P1 17:10 · Taylor Girard (PP) · xG 0.14 · OTT 0, NYR 3. P1 18:03 · Brianne Jenner · xG 0.14 · OTT 1, NYR 3. P3 3:18 · Gabbie Hughes · xG 0.13 · OTT 2, NYR 3. P3 10:45 · Taylor Girard · xG 0.11 · OTT 2, NYR 4. P3 15:27 · Allyson Simpson (PP) · xG 0.23 · OTT 2, NYR 5. P3 19:15 · Sarah Fillier (EN) · xG 0.00 · OTT 2, NYR 6 Top scoring chances NYR P1 0:59 · Sarah Fillier tip · xG 0.24. NYR P3 15:27 · Allyson Simpson wrist · xG 0.23 (goal). NYR P1 13:14 · Maddi Wheeler wrist · xG 0.22 (goal). NYR P1 4:08 · Paetyn Levis tip · xG 0.18. NYR P1 14:51 · Sarah Fillier snap · xG 0.16 (goal). NYR P1 17:10 · Taylor Girard wrist · xG 0.14 (goal). OTT P3 19:09 · Sarah Wozniewicz default · xG 0.15. OTT P2 12:33 · Emily Clark wrist · xG 0.14. OTT P1 18:03 · Brianne Jenner wrist · xG 0.14 (goal). OTT P3 3:18 · Gabbie Hughes snap · xG 0.13 (goal) What this read isn't Not a full indictment of Gwyneth Philips . A -2.47 night is a save-process red flag, but five goals on the five mid-xG shots she conceded is the kind of single-game variance that doesn't repeat across a season. Her chip of chances faced is a normal read.. Not a claim Ottawa couldn't have scored more. They generated 1.37 xG total. That's the range where some nights produce two goals and some produce four. They got two.. Not a power-play process read worth alarming over yet. Four power plays, two shots, 0.19 xG is one game's data point. The sample a PP needs to show something meaningful is much bigger.. Not a model failure on New York's side. Six goals on 3.69 xG including a 0.99 empty-netter is above expectation but not wildly so: take out the empty-netter and it's five goals on 2.70 xG, which is variance the model's probability outputs comfortably allow. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/70 .