1-0: Final (BOS). 1.30-1.59: xG (BOS-NYR). 1-7: HD (BOS-NYR). +1.59: Frankel GSAx New York had the better territorial read, the better chance-quality read, and lost 1-0 anyway. The Sirens finished with 23 shots to Boston's 22 , 1.59 xG to 1.30 , and a commanding 7-to-1 edge in high-danger chances . Aerin Frankel stopped every one of the seven in-tight New York looks and finished the night at +1.59 GSAx . At the other end, a Ella Huber wrister worth 0.07 xG from the first period was the only shot that beat a goaltender all night. One shot, one goal Huber's strike at P1 16:15 came on a wrist shot the model graded at 0.07 xG . Out of the 45 shots on goal in the game, it was the only one that found twine. That's the kind of number that feels unlucky for New York because it is: a 0.08 xG shot goes in roughly one time in thirteen, and the rest of the Boston attack did essentially nothing to trouble Kayle Osborne . Osborne finished at +0.30 GSAx on 22 shots worth 1.30 xG, a save-process line dragged under zero by that single mid-quality wrister finding the net. The power-play ledger Boston drew 6 power plays to New York's three and generated 8 shots and 0.64 xG across that time. The Fleet went 0-for-6 . Megan Keller had the two best Boston chances of the game, both point shots, both with the Fleet up a skater: a 0.15 xG slap shot at P2 14:54 during a two-minute stretch of 5-on-3 and a 0.17 xG slap shot at P3 2:22 on a regular power play. Neither went. New York's three power plays generated zero shots on net, which is its own kind of special-teams failure. Seven combined power plays, no combined goals. Frankel, decomposed Aerin Frankel faced 23 shots worth 1.59 xG . She stopped all of them for +1.59 GSAx . The Sirens put 7 shots from the high-danger area on her and she denied the lot. None of the New York looks in the top six by xG was above 0.15; the volume was heavier than the quality, but seven HD shots on a goalie across 60 minutes is usually enough to produce at least one goal. This time it didn't. Anne Cherkowski and Sarah Fillier were the most active New York shooters; all their attempts went in the pad. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 16:15 · Ella Huber · xG 0.07 · BOS 1, NYR 0 Top scoring chances NYR P3 14:28 · Anne Cherkowski tip · xG 0.15. NYR P2 19:44 · Kristýna Kaltounková wrist · xG 0.12. NYR P1 7:05 · Kristin O'Neill default · xG 0.12. NYR P3 18:34 · Kristin O'Neill wrist · xG 0.11. NYR P3 17:59 · Taylor Girard wrist · xG 0.11. NYR P3 15:53 · Anne Cherkowski wrist · xG 0.10. BOS P3 2:22 · Megan Keller slap · xG 0.17. BOS P2 14:54 · Megan Keller slap · xG 0.16. BOS P1 17:24 · Loren Gabel slap · xG 0.13. BOS P1 16:07 · Jill Saulnier wrist · xG 0.09. BOS P3 0:20 · Alina Müller wrist · xG 0.08. BOS P1 7:15 · Alina Müller wrist · xG 0.08 What this read isn't Not a claim Boston played the better game. On shot share, chance quality, and high-danger volume, New York was ahead across the board. The Fleet won the scoreboard because Frankel was excellent and a low-xG shot happened to go in.. Not a single-game knock on Kayle Osborne . A +0.30 GSAx is essentially one 0.08 goal worth of variance below expectation. On a different night the same shot sequence produces a 0-0 draw into overtime.. Not a referendum on New York's finishing. Going scoreless on 1.69 xG including seven HD chances is a tail outcome, not a skill indicator. Single-game scoring variance is large.. Not a model failure. The model's probability of New York scoring zero given the chance profile is small but meaningfully non-zero. A 1-0 game at 1.44-to-1.69 xG is comfortably inside the distribution. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/69 .