3-3: Final SO (TOR). 1.93-2.57: xG (TOR-MTL). 0.14: TOR goals combined xG. -0.43: Kirk GSAx Montreal played a territorially dominant regulation. The Victoire finished at 63 percent Corsi to Toronto's 37, put 34 shots on Raygan Kirk to Toronto's 26 on Sandra Abstreiter, and outchanced Toronto 2.57 xG to 1.93 . Toronto's three regulation goals came on shots the model graded at 0.07, 0.03, and 0.08 xG , totaling 0.14 xG across the three. Jesse Compher tied the game at P3 18:56 with 1:04 left; Toronto won the shootout. Every Toronto goal was a variance goal Maggie Connors opened the scoring at P1 10:35 on a 0.07 xG wrist shot. Blayre Turnbull made it 2-1 early in the second on a wrister that graded at 0.03 xG , the lowest-quality shot to go in all night. Compher's tying goal with 1:04 left was a 0.06 xG wrister. Individually those are all shots that the model says score roughly one time in twenty or worse; stacked together they added up to 0.14 xG of expectation. Montreal's three goals came on shots graded at 0.11, 0.28, and 0.28 for 0.66 xG combined, far closer to the quality of look a team usually needs to score three. The Montreal chance profile The Victoire had the better reads at 5-on-5 and on the power play. Marie-Philip Poulin scored a 0.11 xG wrister at P2 8:04 to tie the game. Hayley Scamurra converted a 0.28 xG power-play shot at P2 13:20 to put Montreal ahead, and Lina Ljungblom scored on another 0.28 xG look at P3 7:30. That third Montreal goal came on a sequence where Natálie Mlýnková's 0.17 xG wrister one second earlier was stopped and the rebound found Ljungblom. Montreal went 1-for-3 on the power play with 0.81 xG across their three opportunities. Toronto's power play went dry The Sceptres drew 4 power plays and generated 8 shots for 0.69 xG , converting zero. The unit's best look was a Blayre Turnbull 0.25 xG slap shot at P2 9:18 that didn't go. Eight PP minutes for 0.76 xG is mid-quality volume; the conversion rate on a night like that drives the goal expectation around 0.5 power-play goals, and the Sceptres ended on the zero side of the distribution. Goaltending, decomposed Raygan Kirk faced 34 shots worth 2.57 xG and allowed three goals for -0.43 GSAx . That's slightly under save-process expectation on a heavy workload. The two 0.28 xG Montreal goals are shots in the in-tight mid-quality range; Poulin's 0.11 is a shot that beats a goalie sometimes. The line overall reads as a steady night against the Victoire's volume. Sandra Abstreiter stopped 23 of 26 live shots worth 1.93 xG, finishing at -1.07 GSAx . Three goals on a combined 0.14 xG of shots is the sort of save-process line that looks worse than it was. All three Toronto goals were in a range where the model says saves happen about nineteen times in twenty. Three in twenty is how a regulation performance can still take a team to a shootout. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 10:35 · Maggie Connors · xG 0.05 · TOR 1, MTL 0. P2 4:04 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.02 · TOR 2, MTL 0. P2 8:04 · Marie-Philip Poulin · xG 0.10 · TOR 2, MTL 1. P2 13:20 · Hayley Scamurra (PP) · xG 0.26 · TOR 2, MTL 2. P3 7:30 · Lina Ljungblom · xG 0.30 · TOR 2, MTL 3. P3 18:56 · Jesse Compher · xG 0.06 · TOR 3, MTL 3. Shootout · Toronto wins the skills competition · TOR 4, MTL 3 (final) Top scoring chances MTL P3 7:30 · Lina Ljungblom default · xG 0.30 (goal). MTL P2 13:20 · Hayley Scamurra wrist · xG 0.26 (goal). MTL P4 2:35 · Maureen Murphy backhand · xG 0.16. MTL P3 7:29 · Natálie Mlýnková wrist · xG 0.14. MTL P1 16:44 · Marie-Philip Poulin tip · xG 0.12. MTL P2 16:36 · Maureen Murphy wrist · xG 0.11. TOR P2 9:18 · Blayre Turnbull slap · xG 0.25. TOR P4 3:28 · Emma Maltais default · xG 0.16. TOR P4 3:08 · Ella Shelton wrist · xG 0.14. TOR P2 12:41 · Daryl Watts snap · xG 0.13. TOR P4 2:10 · Blayre Turnbull backhand · xG 0.12. TOR P4 3:21 · Emma Maltais wrist · xG 0.12 What this read isn't Not a claim Toronto played the better hockey. Montreal won the shot share, the chance quality, and the high-danger count. Toronto won the scoreboard because three mid-single-digit shots happened to beat the goalie and Abstreiter lost a shootout.. Not an indictment of Sandra Abstreiter . A -1.07 GSAx night on 26 shots is one game's variance. All three Toronto goals were in a quality range where save percentage hangs around 0.93, and three of three got through.. Not a signal that Montreal's offense is broken. Generating 2.61 xG on the road, including seven high-danger chances and a clean 1-of-3 on the power play, is a good offensive night. Three regulation goals on that xG is fine. Losing the shootout is a coin flip.. Not a model failure. The combined probability of Toronto scoring three times on these three exact shots is low; the probability that they would score something in regulation given their shot profile is larger. A shootout outcome is independent of the 5-on-5 and special-teams read. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention). Shootout attempts are not included in the game-state xG totals.. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Shootout attempts are excluded.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/67 .