2-1: Final (TOR). 1.81-1.60: xG (TOR-VAN). 7-7: HD (TOR-VAN). +0.60: Kirk GSAx Two Toronto goals 57 seconds apart in the first period set the result. Sara Hjalmarsson scored at P1 7:10 on a 0.10 xG wrister, Lauren Messier followed at P1 8:07 with a 0.07 xG shot, and the Sceptres led 2-0 with 52 minutes to defend. Vancouver answered with Izzy Daniel 's 0.08 xG snap shot at P3 9:07 and spent the rest of the game chasing a tying goal against Raygan Kirk at +0.60 GSAx . The 57-second window Toronto's two goals were both mid-single-digit xG looks: a 0.10 Sara Hjalmarsson wrister and a 0.07 Lauren Messier finish. Combined they represent 0.18 xG worth of expectation , which is what two goals scored in a minute of play tends to look like. The Sceptres didn't build from there; the rest of the game they generated 1.63 xG across the remaining 22 shots, enough to keep Vancouver honest but not enough to extend the lead. Vancouver pressed, finished once On the shot and territorial read, Vancouver drove more of the game than Toronto did. The Goldeneyes finished at 57 percent Corsi , outshot Toronto 26 to 24 , and matched them 7-to-7 in high-danger chances . The xG count landed 1.81 to 1.60 in Toronto's favor despite Vancouver's volume edge, a difference driven mostly by Toronto's PP looks (0.30 xG on two chances) against Vancouver's almost nonexistent PP (0.03 xG across 2 opportunities, one shot on net). Sarah Nurse 's 0.22 xG backhand at P3 6:48 was the single-best Vancouver chance of the game; it didn't go. Toronto's big look didn't go either Claire Dalton 's wrist shot at P3 15:48 was the single-best look of the night for either team: 0.27 xG , the kind of in-tight chance that scores around one time in four. It didn't. Jesse Compher had a 0.15 xG wrister 42 seconds earlier that also didn't. Neither converting was fine for Toronto because the first-period window had already given them two and Raygan Kirk was holding the line at the other end. Goaltending, decomposed Raygan Kirk faced 26 shots worth 1.60 xG and allowed one for +0.60 GSAx . That's save-process above expectation. The seven Vancouver high-danger shots produced one goal, a 0.08 xG snap from Daniel. Kirk turned aside the two Nurse looks worth 0.22 and 0.12 xG, the Karvinen 0.16 xG wrister at the end of the second, and everything on the Vancouver power play. The save-process line looks cleaner than the scoreline suggests. Emerance Maschmeyer stopped 22 of 24 live shots worth 1.81 xG, finishing at -0.19 GSAx . That's save-process essentially flat. Both Toronto goals were shots a goalie saves most nights, and she made the big Toronto stops when she needed to: Dalton's 0.27, Woods's 0.16 on the penalty kill, Spooner's two looks. The line reads as an even process night where two mid-quality shots happened to go in early. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 7:10 · Sara Hjalmarsson · xG 0.09 · TOR 1, VAN 0. P1 8:07 · Lauren Messier · xG 0.09 · TOR 2, VAN 0. P3 9:07 · Izzy Daniel · xG 0.09 · TOR 2, VAN 1 Top scoring chances TOR P3 15:48 · Claire Dalton wrist · xG 0.25. TOR P2 19:45 · Emma Woods snap · xG 0.17. TOR P1 6:39 · Natalie Spooner wrist · xG 0.13. TOR P3 15:06 · Jesse Compher wrist · xG 0.13. TOR P2 17:28 · Emma Maltais wrist · xG 0.10. TOR P3 10:10 · Natalie Spooner wrist · xG 0.10. VAN P3 6:48 · Sarah Nurse backhand · xG 0.22. VAN P2 17:13 · Michelle Karvinen wrist · xG 0.14. VAN P1 10:49 · Michelle Karvinen default · xG 0.13. VAN P3 6:46 · Sarah Nurse tip · xG 0.13. VAN P1 10:13 · Madison Samoskevich default · xG 0.10. VAN P3 6:25 · Sarah Nurse wrist · xG 0.09 What this read isn't Not a dominant Toronto performance. Two goals on 0.17 combined xG and a below-50 Corsi is the line of a team that got the bounces early and defended them. The process read between the two teams was closer than the result.. Not a knock on Emerance Maschmeyer . A -0.19 GSAx night is save-process essentially flat. Two mid-quality shots went in; she made the big stops when the game demanded them.. Not evidence Vancouver's offense fell apart. Seven high-danger chances and 1.65 xG on home ice is honest volume. The Goldeneyes generated the chances; Kirk denied them, and none of the home PPs got traction.. Not a model failure. A game that finishes at 1.65 to 1.97 xG can land anywhere between 4-3 and 1-0 depending on which shots go in. 2-1 with a goalie edge is comfortably inside the distribution. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/66 .