4-0: Final (MTL). 2.28-0.83: xG (MTL-MIN). 65%: MTL Corsi. +0.83: Desbiens GSAx Montreal controlled the game at every read. The Victoire finished at 65 percent Corsi , outshot Minnesota 33 to 17 , and outchanced them 2.28 xG to 0.83 . The high-danger count finished 8 to 3 . Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped all 17 shots she faced for the shutout and +0.83 GSAx . Laura Stacey 's shorthanded goal at P3 14:09 closed the scoring while Minnesota was trying to get on the board. Two goals in 71 seconds to open the lead Maggie Flaherty opened the scoring at P1 13:01 on a shot the model graded at 0.02 xG , one of the lowest-quality scoring shots to find twine all season. Dara Greig followed 71 seconds later at P1 14:12 with a 0.25 xG wrister, the single-best Montreal chance of the game, which she buried. Two first-period goals on a combined 0.27 xG put Montreal up 2-0 and gave the Victoire a lead they never looked like surrendering given how the rest of the game played out at the other end. The Minnesota power play didn't arrive The Frost drew 4 power plays to Montreal's two and spent eight minutes of power-play time generating 3 shots worth 0.15 xG . That's roughly 0.02 xG per power-play minute, the kind of number that says the unit struggled to enter the zone cleanly and establish possession. Minnesota's two top 5-on-5 chances, 0.14 xG from Klára Hymlárová and a 0.13 xG Élizabeth Giguère backhand two seconds later in a scramble at P2 10:45-10:47, both stayed out. That pair was the entire Frost in-tight push. The rest of the night was from the outside. The shorthanded dagger Montreal picked up three straight minors in the third period, and Minnesota's fourth power play of the night started at P3 12:50 when Hayley Scamurra took a tripping minor. Seventy-nine seconds later, while still on the penalty kill, Laura Stacey scored on a shot the model graded at 0.03 xG . The shorthanded goal pushed the lead to 4-0 and effectively closed the file: turning the last Minnesota power play into a Montreal goal is the sort of swing that ends any realistic comeback path. Goaltending, decomposed Ann-Renée Desbiens faced 17 shots worth 0.83 xG and stopped every one of them. +0.83 GSAx on a 17-shot night isn't the heaviest shutout workload of the season, but the three high-danger chances she denied included the two in-tight scramble looks at the end of that middle-frame shift. The save process line reads as clean across 60 minutes. Nicole Hensley stopped 29 of 33 live shots worth 2.28 xG, finishing at -1.72 GSAx . That's below expectation on a heavy workload. Three of the four Montreal goals were on shots below 0.15 xG; the Greig 0.25 goal was the only one that grades as a high-quality beat. Minnesota's goaltending wasn't the main problem, but on the one night where the team needed an above-water GSAx start to stay in a game they were losing territorially, the numbers went the other way. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 13:01 · Maggie Flaherty · xG 0.02 · MTL 1, MIN 0. P1 14:12 · Dara Greig · xG 0.24 · MTL 2, MIN 0. P3 11:22 · Maureen Murphy · xG 0.13 · MTL 3, MIN 0. P3 14:09 · Laura Stacey (SH) · xG 0.03 · MTL 4, MIN 0 Top scoring chances MTL P1 14:12 · Dara Greig wrist · xG 0.24 (goal). MTL P1 14:11 · Hayley Scamurra snap · xG 0.17. MTL P2 3:13 · Skylar Irving snap · xG 0.15. MTL P3 7:52 · Natálie Mlýnková snap · xG 0.14. MTL P1 7:12 · Laura Stacey snap · xG 0.13. MTL P3 11:22 · Maureen Murphy snap · xG 0.13 (goal). MIN P2 10:45 · Klára Hymlárová tip · xG 0.15. MIN P2 10:47 · Élizabeth Giguère backhand · xG 0.12. MIN P1 8:49 · Brooke Becker snap · xG 0.11. MIN P3 5:51 · Sidney Morin snap · xG 0.08 What this read isn't Not a goalie-driven Montreal win. Ann-Renée Desbiens 's shutout was well-earned, but the territorial play also did most of the work. When a team holds opponents to 0.89 xG over 60 minutes, a shutout is the median outcome, not the tail.. Not a full indictment of Nicole Hensley . A -1.72 GSAx on 33 shots is one game's variance. The Greig goal was a quality chance; the Flaherty 0.02 and Stacey 0.04 shorthander are shots that mostly don't go in.. Not a broken Minnesota power play as a long-term read. 0-for-4 on three shots is a small sample. But an 0.02 xG-per-minute rate across eight PP minutes suggests zone-entry and possession work needs cleaning up over more than one game.. Not a model failure. A 4-0 scoreline on a 2.41-to-0.89 xG split is the distribution doing what it does. The model calls the chance-quality edge; the result falls on the expected side. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/65 .