5-2: Final (TOR). 2.07-1.87: Live-play xG (TOR-SEA). 29-31: Shots (TOR-SEA). +-0.13: Kirk GSAx The five-goal margin is misleading. Strip out the two empty-net goals Toronto added inside the final two minutes and this was a 3-2 game at 2.27 xG to 1.87 , not a blowout. Jesse Compher opened the scoring 28 seconds into the first and Toronto led three separate times; Seattle tied twice. Emma Maltais 's P3 tiebreaker at 5:56 held up, and Sara Hjalmarsson and Kali Flanagan scored 36 seconds apart into an empty net to close the scoring. Three mid-quality leads None of the five live-play goals in this game was struck from high-danger ice. The highest-xG scoring shot was 0.12 ( Renata Fast 's 2-1 marker at P2 4:25). Compher opened on a 0.11 wrister 28 seconds in. Aneta Tejralová tied it at P1 19:48 on a 0.09 xG wrister; Natalie Snodgrass tied it again at P2 18:48 on 0.09. Maltais's P3 go-ahead shot at 5:56 graded at 0.06. Five goals on a combined 0.47 xG worth of shots is variance-heavy finishing; both teams cashed on looks that usually don't go. The xG contest between those five live-play goals was almost exactly even. The 13 Toronto high-danger chances Toronto's non-EN shot profile piled up 13 high-danger attempts on the night, compared to Seattle's six. The majority of that HD volume came on 5-on-5 looks that didn't go, including two Kali Flanagan chances at P2 5:45 worth 0.18 and 0.16 xG on back-to-back shots, a Claire Dalton 0.18 tip at P1 9:03, and multiple Blayre Turnbull wristers in the 0.12 to 0.15 band. Toronto was always generating more in-tight chances than Seattle; the five-goal scoreline overstates the gap, but the HD differential was real. Seattle's power play didn't cash The Torrent drew 2 power plays and generated 5 shots for 0.48 xG , which is healthy PP volume. The best in-tight look was a Julia Gosling 0.17 xG tip at P3 11:09, which stayed out. Going 0-for-2 on that volume is below the expected return; the PP process mostly did what it should, the finishing variance went against it. Goaltending, decomposed Raygan Kirk faced 31 shots worth 1.87 xG and allowed two for +-0.13 GSAx . That's save-process slightly above expectation across 60 minutes, with Seattle's two goals being a pair of 0.09 xG wristers that got through. She turned aside both in-tight Seattle PP looks and every one of the six high-danger 5-on-5 attempts. A steady 31-shot night. Hannah Murphy stopped 24 of 27 live shots worth 2.07 xG, for -0.93 GSAx . The three live-play goals she gave up were all under 0.13 xG, which is a save-process line that looks worse than it played. Against 27 shots and 2.27 xGA of pressure, giving up three is within one goal of expectation; the two empty-net goals were not charged against her line and shouldn't be read as part of her evening. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 0:28 · Jesse Compher · xG 0.10 · TOR 1, SEA 0. P1 19:48 · Aneta Tejralová · xG 0.08 · TOR 1, SEA 1. P2 4:25 · Renata Fast · xG 0.11 · TOR 2, SEA 1. P2 18:48 · Natalie Snodgrass · xG 0.08 · TOR 2, SEA 2. P3 5:56 · Emma Maltais · xG 0.06 · TOR 3, SEA 2. P3 18:01 · Sara Hjalmarsson (EN) · xG 0.00 · TOR 4, SEA 2. P3 18:37 · Kali Flanagan (EN) · xG 0.00 · TOR 5, SEA 2 Top scoring chances (excluding empty-net shots) SEA P3 11:09 · Julia Gosling tip · xG 0.17. SEA P2 18:50 · Alex Carpenter wrist · xG 0.16. SEA P1 15:47 · Mikyla Grant-Mentis wrist · xG 0.12. SEA P3 9:41 · Julia Gosling wrist · xG 0.12. SEA P3 11:35 · Cayla Barnes slap · xG 0.12. SEA P3 14:30 · Alex Carpenter wrist · xG 0.10. TOR P2 5:45 · Kali Flanagan backhand · xG 0.19. TOR P1 9:03 · Claire Dalton tip · xG 0.17. TOR P2 5:45 · Kali Flanagan wrist · xG 0.14. TOR P1 6:52 · Blayre Turnbull wrist · xG 0.13. TOR P1 13:37 · Blayre Turnbull wrist · xG 0.12. TOR P2 4:25 · Renata Fast wrist · xG 0.11 (goal) What this read isn't Not a 5-2 blowout on process. The live-play xG finished 2.27 to 2.04 with neither goalie giving up a goal worth more than 0.12 xG. Two empty-net goals against a pulled goalie are a scoreline-shaping event, not a process read.. Not a failure for Hannah Murphy . A -0.93 GSAx on 27 live shots is below water but within one-goal-of-expectation noise. None of the three live goals against her was a high-danger shot; she lost on low-xG shots finding net, which is single-game variance.. Not a sign Seattle's offense was missing. Six high-danger chances, 2.04 xG, and efficient power-play volume is credible offense. The Torrent scored twice on low-xG shots of their own; a different night the five-minute window before intermission produces a different scoreboard.. Not a model failure. The live-play probability distribution comfortably allowed a 3-2 Toronto regulation win at this chance profile. The empty-net flag on the last two Toronto shots is working as designed, not distorting the model's view. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Live-play xG used in the callout strips the two empty-net attempts from Toronto's total; the full-game xG row (4.13) is also available from the analytics service and includes the EN feature.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/63 .