4-1: Final (MTL). 1.62-2.62: xG (MTL-NYR). 22-35: Shots (MTL-NYR). +1.62: Desbiens GSAx On shot volume and Corsi, this was a New York game: the Sirens finished at 57 percent Corsi , outshot Montreal 35 to 22 , and generated 2.62 xG to 1.62 . On the scoreboard the Victoire were up 3-0 by the 10:07 mark of the first period. Three Montreal goals inside a 307-second window forced New York to pull Kayle Osborne and play from behind against Ann-Renée Desbiens at +1.62 GSAx for 45 minutes. The 5-minute window Dara Greig scored at P1 5:00 on a 0.09 xG wrister. 47 seconds later Jade Downie-Landry made it 2-0 on a 0.18 xG snap, the biggest Montreal chance of the game. At P1 10:07, Skylar Irving scored on a 0.11 xG wrister and the Sirens pulled Osborne. Three goals on a combined 0.38 xG of shots put New York in a hole that the 57 remaining minutes of play couldn't climb out of. Montreal's entire regulation goal output came on shots worth 0.45 xG combined. The goalie change Osborne faced 6 live shots worth 0.53 xG and allowed three, finishing at -2.47 GSAx on a short sample. All three goals she gave up were mid-quality wristers (0.09 through 0.18 xG), the kind of shots most nights stop. Callie Shanahan came in for the remaining play and stopped 15 of 16 shots worth 1.09 xG for +0.09 GSAx , a clean relief appearance that limited the damage. The one goal she allowed was Lina Ljungblom 's 0.11 xG tip from the Montreal power play. New York's power play piled up volume and one goal The Sirens drew 4 power plays and generated 6 shots for 1.12 xG , some of the best PP chance creation of any team this season on a night. Taylor Girard 's 0.42 xG snap at P2 12:05 was the single-best scoring chance either team generated. It didn't go. Neither did Maja Nylén Persson 's 0.21 snap or the 0.21 Lauren Bernard snap earlier. Casey O'Brien 's 0.13 xG wrister at P2 5:57 was the one that cashed, for the Sirens' only goal of the night. Going 1-for-4 on 1.17 xG of PP volume is well below expectation; the unit did the work and the finishes didn't come. Desbiens held the fort Ann-Renée Desbiens faced 35 shots worth 2.62 xG and allowed one for +1.62 GSAx . That's save-process well above expectation on a heavy workload. The one goal she allowed was a 0.13 PP wrister; her five high-danger saves included Girard's 0.42 xG big look. The pattern of the game after the first-period lead was New York pressing and Desbiens holding everything they sent at her, which is how a 3.27-xG possession night ends up a one-goal game at the other end. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 5:00 · Dara Greig · xG 0.09 · MTL 1, NYR 0. P1 5:47 · Jade Downie-Landry · xG 0.17 · MTL 2, NYR 0. P1 10:07 · Skylar Irving · xG 0.08 · MTL 3, NYR 0. P2 5:57 · Casey O'Brien (PP) · xG 0.12 · MTL 3, NYR 1. P3 3:43 · Lina Ljungblom (PP) · xG 0.12 · MTL 4, NYR 1 Top scoring chances NYR P2 12:05 · Taylor Girard snap · xG 0.42. NYR P2 1:59 · Kristin O'Neill tip · xG 0.24. NYR P2 10:42 · Lauren Bernard snap · xG 0.20. NYR P3 9:51 · Maja Nylén Persson snap · xG 0.20. NYR P2 5:57 · Casey O'Brien wrist · xG 0.12 (goal). NYR P3 10:46 · Taylor Girard tip · xG 0.12. MTL P2 17:48 · Catherine Dubois snap · xG 0.18. MTL P1 5:47 · Jade Downie-Landry snap · xG 0.17 (goal). MTL P2 17:59 · Kaitlin Willoughby default · xG 0.14. MTL P3 3:24 · Abby Roque slap · xG 0.13. MTL P3 3:43 · Lina Ljungblom tip · xG 0.12 (goal). MTL P2 15:44 · Dara Greig default · xG 0.11 What this read isn't Not a decisive Montreal possession game. New York won the shot count, the chance quality, and the HD count. The Victoire won because three first-period shots went in and Ann-Renée Desbiens made 34 saves.. Not a clean indictment of Kayle Osborne . Three goals on six shots is a rough line, but each of the three was on a shot the model graded between 0.09 and 0.18 xG. Three of six is a tail outcome; on a lighter workload it would regress quickly.. Not a sign New York's PP is broken. Four power plays, six shots, 1.17 xG is one of the cleaner process lines of the night. The conversion rate (one of four) is below expectation for that volume, but below-expectation finishing doesn't carry forward.. Not a model failure. A 4-1 scoreline with the goalie edge weighing on one side is inside the variance the chance-quality probability distribution allows. The xG read suggests a coin-flip to moderate New York edge; the goalie save-process line resolved it in Montreal's direction. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/62 .