4-2: Final (OTT). 2.96-2.52: xG (OTT-SEA). 14-1: HD (OTT-SEA). 67%: OTT Corsi Ottawa was the better territorial team at 5-on-5 by a wide margin. The Charge finished 67 percent Corsi , outshot Seattle 30 to 26 , and had 14 high-danger shots to 1 . Seattle's offensive pressure came almost entirely inside a five-minute window early in the second period, when Peyton Hemp 's check-from-behind major left Ottawa shorthanded for a full 5:00. Hilary Knight converted once during the kill; the Charge stopped everything else and turned the final minute into a 3-2 game into a 4-2 game on goals 13 seconds apart. The five-minute major At P2 1:09, Hemp took a five-minute major for checking from behind plus a 10-minute game misconduct, ending her night and putting Ottawa on the kill for 5:00 straight. Seattle generated a cluster of in-tight chances during that window: Alex Carpenter 's 0.28 xG shot at P2 4:02, Hilary Knight 's 0.22 at P2 4:22, a 0.17 Carpenter follow-up at 5:37, Hannah Bilka 's 0.31 at 5:38, and Knight's 0.20 xG goal at 5:40. Five shots worth 1.17 xG combined , one goal. Converting one of five 0.17-plus chances across a five-minute PP is actually under the expected rate. The PK absorbed the rest of the window, and Ottawa returned to even strength having given up the lead but not the game. The 14-to-1 HD edge Outside of the five-minute Seattle PP cluster, the game was almost entirely played in the Seattle zone. Ottawa racked up 14 high-danger shots to Seattle's 1 , including four separate 0.14-plus looks from Rebecca Leslie , Emily Clark , Gabbie Hughes, and Alexa Vasko in the first 20 minutes that stayed out. Leslie's eventual 5-on-5 tying goal at P3 14:46 (0.12 xG) and PP goal at 19:30 (0.16 xG) were both mid-quality finishes; they were the ones that cashed out of a steady stream of in-tight Ottawa pressure that had been producing chances but not goals for the first two periods. The 13-second finish With Ottawa trailing 2-1 entering the third, Fanuza Kadirova tied it at P3 2:02 on a 0.11 xG shot. Jessie Eldridge 's 5-on-5 goal at P3 10:03 put Seattle back ahead 2-1. Leslie tied it at P3 14:46 on a 0.12 xG chance. Megan Carter took a cross-check at P3 19:01 and Leslie converted the ensuing power play at P3 19:30 on her second goal of the night. Thirteen seconds later, Emily Clark scored on a 0.10 xG 5-on-5 shot to make it 4-2. Two Ottawa goals in 13 seconds turned a one-goal game into a two-goal game in the final minute. Ottawa's power play finished 1-for-3 , but on a remarkable 1 shot and 0.19 xG : one PP shot, one PP goal. The unit didn't generate volume at all; it just cashed on the single opportunity it took. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips faced 26 shots worth 2.52 xG and allowed two for +0.52 GSAx . That's save-process slightly above expectation, most of it earned during the five-minute kill where she faced a chance-cluster worth more than 1.1 xG and gave up only the Knight goal. Eldridge's 5-on-5 tally at P3 10:03 was a 0.10 xG shot that got through; the rest of the Seattle offense stayed out. Corinne Schroeder stopped 26 of 30 live shots worth 2.96 xG, finishing at -1.04 GSAx . That's save-process below expectation on a heavy workload; four goals on 2.73 xGA including two inside the final minute. None of the four goals she allowed was a high-danger chance graded above 0.17. She held firm against the volume of Ottawa's first-period pressure and the run of in-tight chances in the middle frame; the goals came from mid-quality shots that found corners. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 5:40 · Hilary Knight (PP) · xG 0.24 · OTT 0, SEA 1. P3 2:02 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.13 · OTT 1, SEA 1. P3 10:03 · Jessie Eldridge · xG 0.11 · OTT 1, SEA 2. P3 14:46 · Rebecca Leslie · xG 0.14 · OTT 2, SEA 2. P3 19:30 · Rebecca Leslie (PP) · xG 0.19 · OTT 3, SEA 2. P3 19:43 · Emily Clark · xG 0.12 · OTT 4, SEA 2 Top scoring chances SEA P2 5:38 · Hannah Bilka shot · xG 0.34. SEA P2 4:02 · Alex Carpenter shot · xG 0.28. SEA P2 5:40 · Hilary Knight shot · xG 0.24 (goal). SEA P2 4:22 · Hilary Knight shot · xG 0.23. SEA P2 5:37 · Alex Carpenter shot · xG 0.20. SEA P1 19:54 · Cayla Barnes shot · xG 0.16. OTT P3 19:30 · Rebecca Leslie shot · xG 0.19 (goal). OTT P1 13:26 · Gabbie Hughes shot · xG 0.19. OTT P1 17:26 · Alexa Vasko shot · xG 0.18. OTT P1 1:04 · Emily Clark shot · xG 0.17. OTT P2 15:20 · Rebecca Leslie shot · xG 0.17. OTT P2 9:09 · Taylor House shot · xG 0.16 What this read isn't Not a blowout process win for Ottawa. A 2.73-to-2.28 xG split with both goalies near-expectation is a close underlying game. The 14-to-1 HD edge looks dominant, but Seattle's PP xG (1.49) nearly matches Ottawa's full-game total at 5-on-5.. Not a one-bad-call game. The Hemp major ended her night and put Ottawa down a skater for 5:00 straight, but Seattle converted one of five HD chances during that window. The game was decided in the final minute of regulation, not in the second-period PP.. Not evidence Ottawa's power play is broken. One shot, one goal, 0.16 xG across three opportunities is barely a sample on the PP. The conversion rate says nothing about the zone-entry or setup process; three opportunities isn't enough to see either.. Not a model failure. A game where the team with 14 high-danger chances to one wins by two is exactly where the chance-quality distribution wants it to land. Absorbing the five-minute PP cluster without extended damage is the win condition the numbers identify. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/60 .