2-1 (OT): Final (MTL). 2.03-1.29: xG (MTL-OTT). 8-4: HD chances (MTL-OTT). 2-0 MTL: Walter Cup Final Game 1 of the Walter Cup Final was a coin flip. Game 2 was not. Montréal was the better team at Place Bell: it outshot Ottawa 29 to 21 and built 2.03 expected goals (xG) , the chance-weighted value of its shots, against Ottawa's 1.29 . The Charge still led 1-0 into the second period, on a Sarah Wozniewicz goal that was the best chance either team created in regulation. Two Montréal defenders pulled it back: Kati Tabin tied it 32 seconds into the second, and Maggie Flaherty ended it 14:12 into overtime. Montréal wins 2-1 and leads the best-of-five 2-0 . Ottawa has now lost both Final games in overtime and has to win three in a row to keep its season alive. Montréal carried the play This was not the even game the opener was. Montréal won the shot count 29 to 21 , the high-danger chance count 8 to 4 , and the xG battle 2.03 to 1.29 . The first period set the tone: Montréal put 11 shots on net to Ottawa's 5. The Charge spent long stretches defending, and the one time they got a genuinely dangerous look it went in. The shot map and the cumulative-xG plot below both tell the same story, a home team generating the volume and a road team hanging on. 11-5: P1 shots. 4-6: P2 shots. 8-5: P3 shots. 6-5: OT shots The goals, in order Sarah Wozniewicz opened the scoring at P1 8:38 , unassisted, on a wrist shot the model graded at 0.23 xG , the best look anyone had in regulation. Ottawa carried that 1-0 lead to the first intermission. Montréal answered 32 seconds into the second: Kati Tabin , a defender, from distance for 0.13 xG , scored at 4-on-4 after coincidental minors to Laura Stacey and Emily Clark . The game stayed 1-1 through the rest of regulation, both goalies holding, and went to overtime tied. The overtime Overtime ran long, and it produced the single biggest chance of the entire game. At P4 10:01 , Abby Roque got a wrist away that the model priced at 0.31 xG , comfortably the highest single look of the night. It did not go in. Gwyneth Philips kept Ottawa alive through the extra period until Maggie Flaherty ended it. P4 14:12 : a 0.12 xG snap shot off a Marie-Philip Poulin feed, with Abby Roque credited the second assist. Both Montréal goals came from its blue line, and the one that won the game and the series lead came from a defender in overtime. Win probability: Montréal fell to 21 percent The live win-probability model had Montréal down to about 21 percent while it trailed 1-0 in the first period. That is the trough on the trace below. From there it climbs: past even once Tabin tied it, then a long stretch near a coin flip through the back half of a 1-1 game between two close teams, then straight to 100 on the Flaherty goal. The shape is the opposite of a blowout. Montréal was the better team all night, but it was never safe until the puck went in. Goaltending Gwyneth Philips stopped 27 of 29 and finished at +0.03 GSAx . GSAx, goals saved above expected, compares the goals a keeper allowed to the summed xG of the shots she faced; a number near zero means she performed almost exactly to the chances she saw. She faced 2.03 xG and allowed two. This is a fair night that lost, because the team in front of her generated only 1.29 xG of its own and a long overtime found a way through. Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped 20 of 21 for +0.29 GSAx , modestly above expectation. The one she allowed was the Wozniewicz wrister, the best chance of regulation. Montréal did not need a stolen game from its goaltender. It needed her to be a touch better than average while the skaters carried the play, and that is what happened. The scoring timeline P1 8:38 · Sarah Wozniewicz · xG 0.24 · MTL 0, OTT 1. P2 0:32 · Kati Tabin · xG 0.13 · MTL 1, OTT 1. P4 14:12 · Maggie Flaherty · xG 0.12 · MTL 2, OTT 1 Top scoring chances MTL P4 10:01 · Abby Roque wrist · xG 0.31. MTL P3 5:01 · Catherine Dubois snap · xG 0.16. MTL P2 0:25 · Laura Stacey tip · xG 0.13. MTL P2 0:32 · Kati Tabin default · xG 0.13 (goal). MTL P4 14:12 · Maggie Flaherty snap · xG 0.12 (goal). MTL P1 9:42 · Dara Greig tip · xG 0.11. OTT P1 8:38 · Sarah Wozniewicz wrist · xG 0.24 (goal). OTT P4 13:58 · Alexa Vasko snap · xG 0.22. OTT P1 8:37 · Gabbie Hughes wrist · xG 0.10. OTT P1 11:17 · Brooke Hobson snap · xG 0.09. OTT P3 3:21 · Peyton Hemp snap · xG 0.08. OTT P2 11:06 · Gabbie Hughes snap · xG 0.07 What this read isn't Not another coin flip. Game 1 was genuinely even, 1.78 xG to 1.82. Game 2 was not: Montréal outchanced Ottawa 2.03 to 1.29 and outshot the Charge 29 to 21. The 2-1 final understates how the play ran.. Not a goalie story. Gwyneth Philips finished at +0.03 GSAx and Ann-Renée Desbiens at +0.29. Neither goaltender won or lost this game. Montréal won it on volume and a long overtime push.. Not over for Ottawa, but close. Down 2-0 in a best-of-five, the Charge must win three straight. That is a deep hole, and the model's series probability has swung hard toward Montréal. The small comfort is that both Ottawa losses came in overtime: the margin so far is one bounce, not one class of team.. Not a special-teams story. Neither team scored on the power play (Montréal 0-for-2, Ottawa 0-for-3). Tabin's tying goal came at 4-on-4, even strength of a kind, not on a man advantage. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots count.. Win probability : the in-game model behind the trace updates after every event from score, time remaining, and game state. The shot map and cumulative-xG charts read straight from the play-by-play.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure and every chart in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/319 . The series projection, including how this Game 2 result moves Montréal's series win probability, lives at /playoffs/bracket .