2-1: Final OT (MIN). 2.91-1.71: xG (MIN-OTT). 12-7: HD (MIN-OTT). +0.91: Philips GSAx Game 4 of the Walter Cup Final ended Minnesota's second straight championship and Ottawa's deepest playoff run, on a 0.14 xG wrister 12 minutes into overtime. The chance battle had Minnesota ahead all night: 38 shots to 34 , 2.91 xG to 1.71 , 12 high-danger shots to 7 . At the other end, Gwyneth Philips finished at +0.91 GSAx on the heavier workload. Maddie Rooney finished +0.71 GSAx in support of the championship line. Two regulation goals, 12 hours apart on the game clock Kelly Pannek opened the scoring at P2 10:10 on a 0.09 xG wrister. Tereza Vanišová answered at P3 10:09 on a 0.12 xG wrister to tie it. The two regulation goals came one second apart on the period clock, exactly 20 minutes apart on the game clock, and on a combined 0.21 xG. Both teams generated higher-quality looks across 60 minutes that didn't go in: Minnesota had a Kendall Coyne Schofield 0.24 xG chance and a Grace Zumwinkle 0.23 in the same 4-second sequence at P3 15:14, plus three separate Coyne Schofield looks above 0.15 xG; Ottawa had three Vanišová wristers in the 0.12 to 0.14 range. Neither side cashed on its biggest chances; the two that scored were mid-quality wristers. Overtime, then 12:00, then it was over PWHL playoff overtime is 20-minute periods at 5-on-5 sudden death. Game 4 needed 12:00 of OT . Liz Schepers 's 0.14 xG wrister beat Philips and ended the season. The model's view of the shot is unremarkable in absolute terms; in the context of the OT period it was Minnesota's third recorded scoring chance worth more than 0.10 xG, on the heels of high-pressure shifts that kept the puck in the Ottawa zone. Twelve minutes is roughly the median length of a sudden-death playoff OT period; the result fell on a shot the model would price near even money to score across many tries from comparable ice. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips faced 38 shots worth 2.91 xG across 60 minutes plus 12 of overtime, allowed two for +0.91 GSAx . That's save-process well above expectation on a heavy workload that included 12 high-danger Minnesota shots. The two she gave up were both mid-quality wristers (0.09 Pannek, 0.14 Schepers) that beat her in the spots where she had been winning the larger in-tight chances all night. Maddie Rooney stopped 33 of 34 live shots worth 1.71 xG, finishing at +0.71 GSAx . Save-process slightly above expectation. The one goal she allowed was Vanišová's 0.12 xG wrister; she stopped the seven Ottawa high-danger looks. On a championship night, both starters were above the model's save expectation. The result tipped on which side's mid-quality wrister found space last. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 10:10 · Kelly Pannek · xG 0.07 · MIN 1, OTT 0. P3 10:09 · Tereza Vanišová · xG 0.11 · MIN 1, OTT 1. P4 12:00 · Liz Schepers (OT) · xG 0.15 · MIN 2, OTT 1 Top scoring chances MIN P3 15:14 · Kendall Coyne Schofield default · xG 0.28. MIN P3 15:14 · Grace Zumwinkle wrist · xG 0.22. MIN P2 4:54 · Kendall Coyne Schofield backhand · xG 0.20. MIN P4 12:00 · Liz Schepers wrist · xG 0.15 (goal). MIN P2 7:50 · Klára Hymlárová default · xG 0.15. MIN P2 19:58 · Kelly Pannek default · xG 0.14. OTT P2 19:05 · Emily Clark default · xG 0.12. OTT P1 6:09 · Tereza Vanišová wrist · xG 0.12. OTT P2 14:21 · Tereza Vanišová wrist · xG 0.11. OTT P3 10:09 · Tereza Vanišová wrist · xG 0.11 (goal). OTT P2 19:11 · Anna Meixner backhand · xG 0.11. OTT P2 10:47 · Gabbie Hughes wrist · xG 0.10 What this read isn't Not a knock on Gwyneth Philips . A +0.91 GSAx night on 38 shots and 12 high-danger chances against is championship-level save process. The two goals against were mid-quality wristers; on a different night the same shot mix produces a different scoreboard.. Not a claim Ottawa was outclassed. A 1.71 xG playoff finals road game in 60-plus minutes is below Minnesota's volume, but it's not a one-sided possession game. The Charge had a credible Vanišová threat all night and were one OT shift from Game 5.. Not a model failure. A game finishing 2.92 to 1.71 in xG comfortably allows a 1-1 regulation outcome and a 12-minute OT decided by a mid-quality wrister. The probability distribution puts Minnesota ahead but well shy of certainty.. Not a special-teams story. Neither power play converted; the entire game was decided at 5-on-5 across three regulation periods and 12 minutes of OT. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/307 .