2-1: Final 3OT (MIN). 49:57: OT length. +1.92 / +1.23: Philips / Rooney GSAx. 47-36: Shots (MIN-OTT) Game 3 of the 2025 Walter Cup Final lasted 109 minutes plus 57 seconds . Two goalies both finished above expectation: Gwyneth Philips stopped 45 of 47 for +1.92 GSAx against a 3.33 xGA workload, and Maddie Rooney stopped 35 of 36 for +1.23 GSAx against 1.95 xGA. Three goals total in 49:57 of overtime plus 60 minutes of regulation. Katy Knoll ended it 9:57 into the third overtime period on a 0.11 xG backhand. Two regulation goals, both on shots that mostly don't go in Emily Clark opened the scoring at P1 11:38 on a 0.09 xG wrister. Lee Stecklein tied it at P2 2:58 on a 0.03 xG wrister , the lowest-quality goal of any in this analysis stretch and roughly a one-in-thirty shot. From that 1-1 score at 22:58 of the second period, neither team scored again for 1 hour, 16 minutes, 59 seconds of game time , including 49:57 of sudden-death overtime. Both goalies were inside the gap, stopping every dangerous chance the other side put together until Knoll found a finish. The Knoll OT chance, then the Knoll OT goal Katy Knoll had the single-best scoring chance of the whole night first: a 0.25 xG shot at 6:36 of the second OT period that didn't go. That's the closest the model came to predicting a winner; Philips made the save and the game continued. Three OT periods and 55 minutes later, Knoll scored on a 0.11 xG backhand at 9:57 of the third OT to end it. The second chance was less than half the quality of the first; it found space, the first didn't. That's the shape of single-game variance in playoff sudden death. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips faced 47 shots worth 3.92 xG over the longest workload of any goalie in the series. She allowed two goals on combined shots worth 0.14 xG. Her +1.92 GSAx is one of the cleanest playoff save-process lines the model has graded across the data set: ten Minnesota high-danger chances, two goals against (one on a 0.03 wrister, one on a 0.11 backhand), and stops on the Knoll 0.25 OT look, the Stecklein 0.18 PP tip in the third OT, and the Michela Cava 0.16 chance early in the second OT. Maddie Rooney stopped 35 of 36 live shots worth 2.23 xG, finishing at +1.23 GSAx . The one Ottawa goal she gave up was Clark's 0.09 wrister; she stopped Ottawa's biggest look of the night, Gabbie Hughes 's 0.27 xG PP tip at P3 4:14, and shut down everything Ottawa generated through 36 shots and three plus OT periods of pressure. Shots by period P1 : MIN 10, OTT 2. P2 : MIN 10, OTT 7. P3 : MIN 4, OTT 6. OT1 : MIN 8, OTT 5. OT2 : MIN 11, OTT 11. OT3 : MIN 4, OTT 5 The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 11:38 · Emily Clark · xG 0.07 · MIN 0, OTT 1. P2 2:58 · Lee Stecklein · xG 0.03 · MIN 1, OTT 1. P6 9:57 · Katy Knoll (3OT) · xG 0.14 · MIN 2, OTT 1 Top scoring chances MIN 2OT 6:36 · Katy Knoll default · xG 0.34. MIN 3OT 8:26 · Lee Stecklein tip · xG 0.22. MIN 2OT 0:51 · Michela Cava wrist · xG 0.20. MIN OT 13:35 · Brooke McQuigge tip · xG 0.17. MIN OT 13:44 · Klára Hymlárová wrist · xG 0.17. MIN OT 13:42 · Klára Hymlárová default · xG 0.15. OTT P3 4:14 · Gabbie Hughes tip · xG 0.26. OTT 2OT 18:44 · Tereza Vanišová tip · xG 0.17. OTT 3OT 3:27 · Mannon McMahon tip · xG 0.16. OTT P2 1:26 · Shiann Darkangelo default · xG 0.13. OTT 3OT 8:13 · Emily Clark default · xG 0.11. OTT 3OT 4:24 · Alexa Vasko tip · xG 0.09 What this read isn't Not a possession blowout. Minnesota carried play (3.33 to 1.95 xG, 47 to 36 shots), but Ottawa held even on shot count for stretches and matched Minnesota's HD volume during the third period (4 to 6 in OTT's favor by shot count). The territorial gap was real but not lopsided.. Not a goalie-decided game by knockout, but by a thread. Both starters were above expectation; Philips by a larger margin. The result tipped on which side's mid-quality OT shot found the post first.. Not a model failure. A 1-1 regulation game at 3.33 to 1.95 xG comfortably allows three OT periods of zero goals. Sudden-death OT extends the game-state distribution into territory where any single shot can end it.. Not a special-teams story. Combined power-play results were 0-for-7. Both PP units generated some volume but no goals; the entire game was decided at 5-on-5 across regulation and OT. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/306 .