1-2: Final OT (MIN). 2.31-2.14: xG (OTT-MIN). 38-24: Shots (OTT-MIN). +1.31: Rooney GSAx For 17 minutes and 25 seconds of the third period, this was a 0-0 game on a 2.31-to-2.14 Ottawa edge in xG. Jocelyne Larocque 's 0.15 xG wrister at P3 17:25 put the Charge ahead with 2:35 left. With 37 seconds remaining Tereza Vanišová took a tripping minor; Britta Curl-Salemme tied it on the resulting power play with 16 seconds left . Curl-Salemme then won it in overtime for her second of the night. The 21-second window Larocque scored at 17:25, Vanišová took the minor at 19:23, Curl-Salemme tied it at 19:44. Twenty-one seconds of game clock from the Vanišová penalty to the Curl-Salemme PP shot. The shot was a 0.20 xG attempt : an in-tight finish that scores around one time in five. It scored. Up to that point Ottawa's penalty kill had been functional through the night, holding Minnesota to 4 PP shots and 0.57 xG across the first 4 opportunities . The fifth one cashed in the exact spot Ottawa couldn't afford it. Curl-Salemme twice Curl-Salemme's PP equalizer with 16 seconds left was a 0.20 xG shot. Her OT winner at 16:24 of overtime was a 0.12 xG wrister, a mid-quality chance that scored at the right moment. Two Curl-Salemme goals on a combined 0.28 xG was the entire Minnesota offensive output, and that small output was enough on a night when Ottawa generated more dangerous attempts (including six high-danger shots) but couldn't get more than one past Maddie Rooney. Goaltending, decomposed Maddie Rooney faced 38 shots worth 2.31 xG and allowed one for +1.31 GSAx . That's save-process well above expectation, anchoring a Minnesota team that was outshot, outchanced, and out-Corsi'd through 60 minutes. The five Ottawa high-danger looks she stopped included a Taylor House 0.25 xG wrist shot at P2 8:48, a Brianne Jenner 0.20 PP wrister at P2 12:08, and Emily Clark 's 0.21 PK look. The save process did most of the work in the win condition. Gwyneth Philips faced 24 shots worth 2.14 xG and allowed two for +0.14 GSAx . Save-process essentially flat. Curl-Salemme's two goals were a 0.18 PP shot and a 0.10 OT wrister; both shots that beat goalies sometimes. The other dangerous Minnesota chances she stopped included a Lee Stecklein 0.19 PP look in the second period, a Brooke McQuigge 0.18 OT wrister at P4 0:35, and a Křížová 0.15 chance in the third. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P3 17:25 · Jocelyne Larocque · xG 0.13 · OTT 1, MIN 0. P3 19:44 · Britta Curl-Salemme (PP) · xG 0.20 · OTT 1, MIN 1. P4 16:24 · Britta Curl-Salemme (OT) · xG 0.12 · OTT 1, MIN 2 Top scoring chances MIN P3 8:20 · Lee Stecklein default · xG 0.21. MIN P3 19:44 · Britta Curl-Salemme default · xG 0.20 (goal). MIN OT 0:35 · Brooke McQuigge wrist · xG 0.19. MIN P2 18:19 · Liz Schepers default · xG 0.17. MIN P3 4:35 · Denisa Křížová wrist · xG 0.13. MIN OT 9:24 · Kelly Pannek wrist · xG 0.13. OTT P2 8:48 · Taylor House wrist · xG 0.24. OTT P2 9:53 · Emily Clark wrist · xG 0.20. OTT P2 12:08 · Brianne Jenner wrist · xG 0.18. OTT P3 17:25 · Jocelyne Larocque wrist · xG 0.13 (goal). OTT P2 8:48 · Taylor House wrist · xG 0.10. OTT P2 7:16 · Emily Clark wrist · xG 0.10 What this read isn't Not a process loss for Ottawa. They drove the game (38 to 24 shots, 57 percent Corsi, 6-to-5 HD) and led with 16 seconds left in regulation. The numerical read favors Ottawa across most categories.. Not a knock on Gwyneth Philips . A +0.14 GSAx night is essentially expectation. The two goals she allowed (0.18 and 0.10) are both shots in the band where saves happen the majority of the time but not always.. Not a sign Minnesota's PP is dominant. 1-for-5 on five shots and 0.55 xG is a low-volume PP night, with the one shot that mattered being a single in-tight Curl-Salemme look at the right moment.. Not a model failure. A 1-1 regulation game at this xG split allows OT outcomes either way. The Vanišová penalty with 37 seconds left was a discrete event that swung probability sharply; the model is calibrated on full-game inputs and doesn't price single penalties. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/305 .