2-1: Final OT (OTT). 0.99-1.63: xG (OTT-MIN). 19-26: Shots (OTT-MIN). +0.63: Philips GSAx Minnesota carried play through 60 minutes and lost. The Frost outshot Ottawa 26 to 19 , outchanced them 1.63 xG to 0.99 , and won 56 percent of Corsi . Gwyneth Philips stopped 25 of 26 for +0.63 GSAx , and Emily Clark 's wrister 2:47 into overtime , graded by the model at 0.06 xG , won the opener of the championship series. A 0.05 xG OT goal The Clark OT winner is the lowest-xG scoring shot of any game in this analysis stretch. A 0.05 attempt is a shot the model says scores roughly one time in twenty: an outside-the-slot wrister, no rebound or deflection feature, full-strength play. It went. The full quality split of the three goals in the game was Rebecca Leslie 0.08, Klára Hymlárová 0.14, and Clark 0.05, for a combined 0.27 xG of scoring shots across three goals. Nothing about the goal pattern looked like in-tight one-timers; this was a low-event series opener decided in OT on a shot that mostly doesn't go. Minnesota built the better game Across 60-plus minutes Minnesota generated the better territorial read, including six high-danger chances to Ottawa's four. Their best looks: a pair of Michela Cava wristers in the 0.15 range, a Kelly Pannek 0.12 tip, and the Hymlárová 0.14 chance that did go in to tie the game. The Frost's chance creation was steady through the second period and most of the third; what was missing was finishing on those second-tier in-tight looks Philips kept turning aside. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips faced 26 shots worth 1.63 xG and allowed one for +0.63 GSAx . Save-process well above expectation on a championship-game workload that included six Minnesota high-danger chances. The one she gave up was a 0.14 xG wrister; the Cava and Pannek looks stayed out, the in-tight Curl-Salemme third-period wrister stayed out, and the Mrazová third-period look stayed out. Nicole Hensley stopped 17 of 19 live shots worth 0.99 xG, finishing at -1.01 GSAx . Two goals on a combined 0.13 xG of shots: a 0.08 Leslie wrister and a 0.05 Clark OT shot. Neither was a high-quality in-tight chance. The save-process line runs roughly two-thirds of a goal below expectation; in a 19-shot workload that's the noisiest sample, but two mid-single-digit xG goals beating any goalie in any game is unusual variance. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 11:34 · Rebecca Leslie · xG 0.06 · OTT 1, MIN 0. P3 5:24 · Klára Hymlárová · xG 0.13 · OTT 1, MIN 1. P4 2:47 · Emily Clark (OT) · xG 0.06 · OTT 2, MIN 1 Top scoring chances MIN P1 8:32 · Michela Cava wrist · xG 0.14. MIN P2 4:46 · Michela Cava wrist · xG 0.13. MIN P2 3:49 · Kelly Pannek tip · xG 0.13. MIN P3 5:24 · Klára Hymlárová wrist · xG 0.13 (goal). MIN P3 12:30 · Taylor Heise default · xG 0.11. MIN P2 3:28 · Brooke McQuigge backhand · xG 0.10. OTT P2 12:24 · Kateřina Mrázová wrist · xG 0.14. OTT P3 7:31 · Tereza Vanišová default · xG 0.11. OTT P1 15:13 · Victoria Bach slap · xG 0.11. OTT P1 14:00 · Tereza Vanišová wrist · xG 0.09. OTT P2 5:04 · Emily Clark wrist · xG 0.09. OTT P1 13:46 · Brianne Jenner slap · xG 0.07 What this read isn't Not a process win for Ottawa. They were outshot, outchanced, and out-Corsi'd through 60 minutes plus three of OT. The win came on a +0.72 GSAx night from Philips and a 0.05 OT shot finding net.. Not a knock on Nicole Hensley as the starter. Two goals on 0.13 xGA combined is a one-game tail outcome. The save-process numbers don't extrapolate from a 19-shot sample, but Minnesota is short of having a long pre-game read.. Not a sign Minnesota's offense is broken. 1.72 xG and six high-danger chances in a road playoff opener is honest output. The conversion didn't follow.. Not a model failure. A 1-1 regulation game at 1.09-to-1.72 xG comfortably allows OT outcomes either way. The Clark OT goal is in the model's tail; it's not in the model's exclusion zone. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/304 .