2-1: Final (OTT). 1.86-1.17: xG (OTT-MTL). 11-5: HD (OTT-MTL). +0.17: Philips GSAx Ottawa cashed both of its biggest looks of the night and closed Montreal out in four games. Rebecca Leslie 's wrister at P1 2:00 , the single-best chance the model graded for either team at 0.25 xG , opened the scoring two minutes in. Emily Clark 's power-play wrister at P3 0:31 , the second-best Ottawa chance at 0.19 xG , made it 2-0. The Charge had 11 high-danger shots to Montreal's 5 across 60 minutes, and Gwyneth Philips stopped 19 of 20 shots for the close-out. Two for two on the top chances Of Ottawa's 11 high-danger looks, the two highest by xG both went in the game's most consequential moments. Leslie's 0.25 wrister 2:00 into the game came on a clean entry sequence; Clark's 0.19 power-play wrister 31 seconds into the third period gave Ottawa a two-goal cushion to play with. Neither shot was a true high-danger one-timer, but both were mid-quality finishes with the model expecting them to score around one time in five. Two of two on those is variance going Ottawa's way on a night where their other in-tight looks ( Tereza Vanišová 0.15, Brianne Jenner 0.15, two more in the 0.12 range) didn't go. Montreal pressed late on a quieter night The Victoire generated 1.17 xG on 20 shots , with five high-danger chances and a single PP opportunity. Maureen Murphy 's 0.13 wrister at P3 14:58 cut the lead to 2-1 with 5:02 left in regulation, setting up a late push. Lina Ljungblom had a 0.19 xG wrister at P1 14:38 that didn't go, and Marie-Philip Poulin 's 0.12 PP shot in the second period stayed out. The chance creation existed but came in mid-quality form against a Philips save-process line that never broke. Goaltending, decomposed Gwyneth Philips faced 20 shots worth 1.17 xG and allowed one for +0.17 GSAx . Save-process modestly above expectation in a tight, low-event close-out game. The one she gave up was Murphy's 0.13 wrister; she stopped Ljungblom's 0.19, the Poulin PP look, and the four other in-tight Montreal chances she faced across 60 minutes. Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped 21 of 23 live shots worth 1.86 xG, finishing at -0.14 GSAx . Save-process essentially flat. Two goals on shots worth 0.44 combined xG is the line that's expected; both Leslie and Clark beat her on the kind of in-tight wristers that score one in four to one in five times. The Desbiens line did its job; the Philips line did its job slightly better. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 2:00 · Rebecca Leslie · xG 0.24 · OTT 1, MTL 0. P3 0:31 · Emily Clark (PP) · xG 0.18 · OTT 2, MTL 0. P3 14:58 · Maureen Murphy · xG 0.12 · OTT 2, MTL 1 Top scoring chances MTL P1 14:38 · Lina Ljungblom wrist · xG 0.16. MTL P2 16:03 · Marie-Philip Poulin default · xG 0.14. MTL P3 14:58 · Maureen Murphy wrist · xG 0.12 (goal). MTL P1 16:58 · Lina Ljungblom wrist · xG 0.11. MTL P2 0:55 · Kristin O'Neill tip · xG 0.08. MTL P2 0:28 · Catherine Dubois wrist · xG 0.07. OTT P1 2:00 · Rebecca Leslie wrist · xG 0.24 (goal). OTT P3 0:31 · Emily Clark wrist · xG 0.18 (goal). OTT P2 11:40 · Brianne Jenner wrist · xG 0.13. OTT P2 11:34 · Tereza Vanišová wrist · xG 0.13. OTT P3 1:26 · Shiann Darkangelo tip · xG 0.13. OTT P2 6:11 · Shiann Darkangelo wrist · xG 0.11 What this read isn't Not a blowout. A 2.06-to-1.32 xG split with both goalies near or above expectation is a moderate Ottawa edge, not a one-sided game. The series-clinching nature came from the two Ottawa chances that landed early.. Not a goalie-decided game by knockout. Ann-Renée Desbiens was essentially expectation; Gwyneth Philips was modestly above. The differential mattered, but the bigger driver was Ottawa's HD edge (11 to 5).. Not a sign Montreal's offense fell apart. 1.32 xG on the road in a close-out playoff game is a credible output. Murphy's late goal showed the team kept generating; the rest of the third-period push didn't find finishes.. Not a model failure. Two for two on the top two Ottawa chances is variance the model's probabilities allow comfortably. A 0.25 plus a 0.19 has a combined expected goal output of 0.44 across the two; the realized two is well within the distribution. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/303 .