4-3: Final OT (MIN). 2.30-2.59: xG (MIN-TOR). 12-14: HD (MIN-TOR). 0: Penalties (combined) Game 4 of the 2025 PWHL semifinal at the Xcel Energy Center went 76 minutes without a single penalty by either team. Toronto outshot Minnesota 29 to 26 , outchanced them 2.59 xG to 2.30 , and had a 14-to-12 edge in high-danger shots . Seven goals total on a combined 0.70 xG of shots . Taylor Heise won it 16:00 into overtime on a 0.03 xG wrister , sending Minnesota into the Walter Cup Final. Seven goals on a combined 0.71 xG Every goal in this game came on a shot the model graded under 0.21 xG. The list: Julia Gosling 0.15, Hannah Miller 0.06, Kendall Coyne Schofield 0.08 (14 seconds after Miller), Kelly Pannek 0.05, Emma Maltais 0.14, Coyne Schofield's 0.21 (her second of the night), and Heise's 0.02 in OT. Combined 0.70 xG worth of shots, seven goals . Both goalies finished below expectation in a game where neither could solve a steady stream of mid-quality wristers finding net. The biggest chances of the night for either team ( Emma Woods 's 0.28 PP-equivalent tip in the first, Daryl Watts 's 0.21 OT tip) didn't go. A 14-second response that defined the second period Toronto led 2-0 after Miller's 5-on-5 goal at P2 10:33. Coyne Schofield scored 14 seconds later at P2 10:47 . Pannek tied it at P2 18:48 with 1:12 left in the middle frame. The Sceptres got their lead back at P3 0:58 on the Maltais goal, and Coyne Schofield tied it again at P3 8:33 with the highest-xG goal of the game on a 0.21 chance. Six regulation goals in a 56-minute window between 5:28 of the first and 8:33 of the third, then nothing for 27 minutes until Heise's OT winner. The Frost answered every Sceptres lead within minutes; the Sceptres needed an OT shift to be the team that re-took it, and didn't get one. Goaltending, decomposed Nicole Hensley faced 29 shots worth 2.59 xG and allowed three for -0.41 GSAx . Save-process below expectation. None of the three Toronto goals against her was a high-quality chance: 0.15, 0.06, and 0.14 xG. The shots that beat her were the kind goalies usually stop. Her save-process line is one of the more surprising aspects of the night, given the workload she faced and the xG distribution. Carly Jackson stopped 22 of 26 live shots worth 2.30 xG, finishing at -1.70 GSAx . That's well below expectation. Four goals on shots worth a combined 0.36 xG includes the 0.02 Heise OT winner, which is a one-in-fifty shot that ended the season. The save-process line says Jackson lost the game on shots she would normally stop more often than not; in a sudden-death scenario the model can't extend the save process line forever, and the variance broke against her. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 5:28 · Julia Gosling · xG 0.13 · MIN 0, TOR 1. P2 10:33 · Hannah Miller · xG 0.06 · MIN 0, TOR 2. P2 10:47 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.07 · MIN 1, TOR 2. P2 18:48 · Kelly Pannek · xG 0.05 · MIN 2, TOR 2. P3 0:58 · Emma Maltais · xG 0.12 · MIN 2, TOR 3. P3 8:33 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.25 · MIN 3, TOR 3. P4 16:00 · Taylor Heise (OT) · xG 0.03 · MIN 4, TOR 3 Top scoring chances MIN P3 8:33 · Kendall Coyne Schofield default · xG 0.25 (goal). MIN OT 7:34 · Taylor Heise tip · xG 0.18. MIN P3 1:41 · Katy Knoll wrist · xG 0.15. MIN OT 14:56 · Britta Curl-Salemme wrist · xG 0.13. MIN P3 18:52 · Taylor Heise tip · xG 0.13. MIN P3 8:33 · Kendall Coyne Schofield tip · xG 0.13. TOR OT 5:52 · Daryl Watts tip · xG 0.30. TOR P1 8:43 · Emma Woods tip · xG 0.30. TOR OT 8:58 · Daryl Watts wrist · xG 0.14. TOR P2 2:44 · Maggie Connors tip · xG 0.14. TOR P1 5:28 · Julia Gosling wrist · xG 0.13 (goal). TOR P3 0:58 · Emma Maltais wrist · xG 0.12 (goal) What this read isn't Not a process-driven Minnesota win. Toronto outshot, outchanced, and out-Corsi'd the Frost in regulation. Minnesota won by converting their mid-quality looks at a slightly better rate and surviving an OT period decided on a 0.02 wrister.. Not a knock on Carly Jackson as the broader takeaway. A -1.70 GSAx night is one game's variance against a low-xG shot mix that found space. The four Toronto goals against came on shots that average 0.09 xG; conceding all four is a tail outcome rather than a process pattern.. Not a sign of broken Toronto offense. The Sceptres generated 2.53 xG on the road, including a 0.28 Woods chance and a 0.21 Watts OT look. Two of the three Toronto goals were on mid-single-digit xG shots, but the chance creation was well-distributed.. Not a model failure. Seven goals on 0.71 combined xG is a high-variance stretch in any single game, but the model's shot-by-shot probabilities are consistent with the realized goal count when you look across all 55 shots; the model graded the underlying chance quality, not the specific finishes. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/302 .