7-5: Final (MIN). 1.20: Combined xG of goals. -3.37 / -4.96: Rooney / Campbell GSAx. 24-23: Shots (MIN-TOR) Twelve goals across 60 minutes on a combined 1.20 xG of shots . Both starting goaltenders finished below -3 GSAx. Minnesota outscored Toronto 7-5 in a game that, on the underlying chance quality, sat at 2.04 xG to 1.63 . The Frost scored three times in the first 7:48 on a combined 0.20 xG, took a 5-2 lead into late second, and held off a Toronto push that produced four answer goals across the second and third periods. The model graded none of the twelve scoring shots above 0.34 xG; ten of the twelve graded under 0.15. Three goals on 0.20 xG inside 7:48 Liz Schepers scored at P1 2:33 on a 0.07 xG wrister. Brooke McQuigge made it 2-0 at 6:56 on a 0.09 tip. Lee Stecklein scored at 7:48 on a 0.05 xG wrister to put Minnesota up 3-0. Three goals across five minutes and 15 seconds of game time on a combined 0.20 xG. That's roughly the expected return of fifteen mid-quality shots, condensed into three. Daryl Watts got Toronto on the board at 14:58 of the first on a 0.08 wrister, and the game settled into a back-and-forth pattern from there. The two real chances of the night Of the twelve scoring shots, only two were graded above 0.20 xG. Brooke McQuigge 's 0.33 xG power-play wrister at P2 8:20 was the single highest-quality chance of the game; it went, putting Minnesota up 4-2. Kali Flanagan 's 0.22 xG wrister at P2 17:57, scored 22 seconds after a Sophie Jaques goal made it 5-2, was the second-best look. Ten of the twelve goals were graded under 0.15 xG : a stretch of mid-single-digit wristers and tips finding net at a rate goalies usually stop them. Both ends of the rink had that same problem. Goaltending, decomposed Maddie Rooney faced 23 shots worth 1.63 xG and allowed five for -3.37 GSAx . Save-process well below expectation. None of the five goals against her was a high-danger chance: 0.08, 0.02, 0.22, 0.04, and 0.11. The Connors 0.02 xG goal in the second was the lowest-quality goal Toronto scored. The line is what happens when goalies on both ends are giving up shots they stop most nights. Kristen Campbell stopped 17 of 24 shots worth 2.04 xG, finishing at -4.96 GSAx . Seven goals on shots worth a combined 0.74 xG is the kind of save-process line that happens once a year. Schepers 0.07, McQuigge 0.09, Stecklein 0.05, McQuigge 0.33 PP, Jaques 0.04, Cava 0.06, Cava 0.15 PP. Five of the seven were under 0.10 xG. The model expected roughly two goals on this shot mix; the realized seven sits well past the tail of any normal single-game distribution. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 2:33 · Liz Schepers · xG 0.06 · MIN 1, TOR 0. P1 6:56 · Brooke McQuigge · xG 0.10 · MIN 2, TOR 0. P1 7:48 · Lee Stecklein · xG 0.03 · MIN 3, TOR 0. P1 14:58 · Daryl Watts · xG 0.06 · MIN 3, TOR 1. P2 2:28 · Maggie Connors · xG 0.02 · MIN 3, TOR 2. P2 8:20 · Brooke McQuigge (PP) · xG 0.32 · MIN 4, TOR 2. P2 17:35 · Sophie Jaques · xG 0.04 · MIN 5, TOR 2. P2 17:57 · Kali Flanagan · xG 0.21 · MIN 5, TOR 3. P3 5:47 · Anna Kjellbin · xG 0.03 · MIN 5, TOR 4. P3 7:20 · Michela Cava · xG 0.06 · MIN 6, TOR 4. P3 9:21 · Michela Cava (PP) · xG 0.14 · MIN 7, TOR 4. P3 12:04 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.12 · MIN 7, TOR 5 Top scoring chances MIN P2 8:20 · Brooke McQuigge wrist · xG 0.32 (goal). MIN P3 11:47 · Michela Cava default · xG 0.16. MIN P3 14:00 · Kendall Coyne Schofield default · xG 0.16. MIN P3 9:21 · Michela Cava wrist · xG 0.14 (goal). MIN P2 8:19 · Kendall Coyne Schofield default · xG 0.12. MIN P3 7:10 · Taylor Heise default · xG 0.12. TOR P2 17:57 · Kali Flanagan wrist · xG 0.21 (goal). TOR P1 11:47 · Blayre Turnbull tip · xG 0.17. TOR P3 12:44 · Jesse Compher default · xG 0.17. TOR P2 9:09 · Hayley Scamurra default · xG 0.13. TOR P3 18:33 · Natalie Spooner default · xG 0.12. TOR P3 12:04 · Blayre Turnbull default · xG 0.12 (goal) What this read isn't Not a possession blowout. Toronto won Corsi (56.7 percent) and the score-adjusted shot share, but lost the goal column 7-5. The territorial play and the scoreboard moved in opposite directions.. Not a knock on either goalie as a long-term read. A combined GSAx around -8.5 across two starters is one of the more extreme single-game lines either has had. The shot mix that beat them was overwhelmingly mid-quality wristers; that's variance, not process.. Not a Minnesota PP that suddenly broke out. 2-for-4 on 0.72 xG is good conversion, but the underlying volume was modest. The McQuigge 0.33 chance was the only PP shot above 0.15 xG.. Not a model failure. A 12-goal game on 3.51 xG is in the model's tail but not outside its calibration. The probabilities the model assigns mid-quality wristers to score are non-zero; this game found enough of them to produce an outlier scoreline. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (≤3 s), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model (MoneyPuck / NST convention).. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded from both sides of the ledger. Overtime shots are included.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/300 .