4-3 OT: Final (VAN-MIN). 24-31: Shots (VAN-MIN). 1.69-1.81: xG (VAN-MIN). -1.19/-2.31: GSAx (MASCH/BOIS) A tight low-event game decided by a defenceman in overtime. Minnesota out-shot Vancouver 31 to 24 and out-xG'd them 1.81 to 1.69 , but seven goals on a combined 3.52 xG of scoring shots is a finishing run on both sides, not a process story. Sophie Jaques ended it 1:24 into OT on a 0.11 xG shot from the top of the circle, with Hannah Miller and Jenn Gardiner on the assists. Five-on-five was Minnesota's, barely Minnesota attempted 40 shots to Vancouver's 31 at five-on-five, won 56.3% of Corsi and 51.6% of the faceoffs. The high-danger split was even 8-6 ; the per-shot xG pricing was almost identical (0.075 MIN vs 0.070 VAN). Neither team produced a 5v5 attack the model would call dominant; both finished above what they generated. Seven goals on quiet xG Kendall Coyne Schofield opened the scoring at P1 4:04 from Mae Batherson , a 0.09 xG shot. Jenn Gardiner answered for Vancouver at P1 4:53 (0.10 xG, Mellissa Channell-Watkins on the primary). Sarah Nurse extended the lead at P1 10:08, with Sophie Jaques on the helper. The first-period scoring shots all sat below 0.11 xG. Hannah Miller added Vancouver's third on a five-on-four power play at P2 1:50, helped by Gardiner and Abby Boreen , the highest-priced regulation goal of the game at 0.16 xG. Kelly Pannek pulled Minnesota back to one at P3 1:21 from Kendall Cooper and Grace Zumwinkle . Klára Hymlárová tied it 3-3 on the penalty kill at P3 9:26, with Batherson and Britta Curl-Salemme on the assists and Vancouver on the man advantage. Regulation ended 3-3. Sophie Jaques won it for Vancouver 1:24 into overtime, three-on-three, with Miller and Gardiner the assists; the 0.11-xG shot from inside the circle is a defenceman finishing a clean look, not a freak goal. It's the third-period and OT version of what Minnesota had also been doing all night: scoring above expectation. Vancouver just did it last. Both goalies finished below expectation Marlène Boissonnault faced 24 shots worth 1.69 xG and allowed four. -2.31 GSAx is a tail draw on a quiet workload; the goals Vancouver scored sat between 0.08 and 0.16 xG, ordinary chances for a starter. Single-game GSAx has wide variance and this is a single game. Emerance Maschmeyer faced 31 shots worth 1.81 xG and allowed three. -1.19 GSAx is the quieter of the two negative lines; she gave up Hymlárová's short-handed goal on what the model priced at 0.19 xG, the highest-leverage save she didn't make. Vancouver's win came in spite of her line, not because of it. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 4:04 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.09 · VAN 0, MIN 1. P1 4:53 · Jenn Gardiner · xG 0.10 · VAN 1, MIN 1. P1 10:08 · Sarah Nurse · xG 0.08 · VAN 2, MIN 1. P2 1:50 · Hannah Miller (PP) · xG 0.15 · VAN 3, MIN 1. P3 1:21 · Kelly Pannek · xG 0.06 · VAN 3, MIN 2. P3 9:26 · Klára Hymlárová (PP) · xG 0.20 · VAN 3, MIN 3. OT 1:24 · Sophie Jaques · xG 0.11 · VAN 4, MIN 3 Special teams Minnesota drew 4 power-play opportunities and generated 8 shots for 0.49 xG , scoring once short-handed via Hymlárová. Vancouver drew 3 and generated 2 shots for 0.22 xG , converting once via Miller. Both special-teams units finished 1-for-the-night with a low-volume PP workload; the five-on-five run of play decided most of the rest. The penalty timeline P1 11:15 · MIN · Lee Stecklein · Tripping (2 min). P1 19:33 · VAN · Abby Boreen · Hooking (2 min). P2 0:07 · MIN · Mae Batherson · Interference (2 min). P2 13:05 · VAN · Hannah Miller · Interference (2 min). P2 16:30 · MIN · Katy Knoll · Illegal Body Checking (2 min). P3 3:42 · VAN · Claire Thompson · Hooking (2 min). P3 7:32 · VAN · Claire Thompson · Delay of Game (2 min) Vancouver's looks above 0.08 xG OT 0:59 · Sophie Jaques · xG 0.18. P1 16:52 · Hannah Miller · xG 0.16. P2 1:50 · Hannah Miller (goal) · xG 0.15. P2 8:25 · Michelle Karvinen · xG 0.14. P3 3:14 · Abby Boreen · xG 0.13. P3 11:10 · Abby Boreen · xG 0.12. P2 0:58 · Sophie Jaques · xG 0.11. OT 1:24 · Sophie Jaques (goal) · xG 0.11. P1 4:53 · Jenn Gardiner (goal) · xG 0.10. P2 0:18 · Izzy Daniel · xG 0.09 Minnesota's looks above 0.08 xG P2 19:26 · Katy Knoll · xG 0.26. P3 9:26 · Klára Hymlárová (goal) · xG 0.20. OT 0:34 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.15. P1 19:09 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.12. P1 2:55 · Claire Butorac · xG 0.10. P1 4:04 · Kendall Coyne Schofield (goal) · xG 0.09. P2 7:59 · Taylor Heise · xG 0.09 What this read isn't Not a claim Vancouver was outplayed. The chance distribution was nearly even five-on-five; Minnesota had a marginal edge on volume, not on quality. The xG split is 1.83 to 1.69, half a chance.. Not a goalie indictment for either side. Both goalies finished below expectation on quiet workloads. Single-game GSAx has wide variance; -2.31 and -1.17 are tail draws on a 1.83-xG and 1.69-xG night respectively, not trend reads.. Not a story about Sophie Jaques as a freak goalscorer. A defender getting an OT winner on 0.11 xG is the kind of look the model says will go in roughly one in nine times. It went in this time. Jaques' actual scoring case for the year is in the season-aggregate.. Not a special-teams swing. Each side scored once on its own PP, with another short-handed strike from each side cancelling out. Net special-teams differential: zero. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression. See the methodology post . Empty-net shots priced separately.. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per goalie from the PBP feed. Both goalies played the entire game; no EN exclusion applies.. Corsi and high-danger splits : five-on-five only. PP shots count toward PP xG, not Corsi or HD.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/120 .