1-1 SO: Final (SEA-MTL). 24-37: Shots (SEA-MTL). 2.03-3.34: xG (SEA-MTL). +2.34/+1.03: GSAx (SCHR/DESB) Two goalies stole the game from two offences. Seattle carried play at five-on-five, out-shot Montréal 24 to 37 , and out-xG'd them 2.03 to 3.34 . Seattle also drew six power plays to four. None of that mattered to the scoreboard. Corinne Schroeder stopped 36 of 37 for a +2.34 GSAx ; Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped 23 of 24 for a +1.03 GSAx . The shootout decided it; the model has no view there. Seattle dominated the underlying numbers Seattle attempted 27 shots to Montréal's 38 at five-on-five, won 41.5% of Corsi, won 55.6% of the faceoffs, and held a high-danger edge of 5-8 . The model's regulation read was a Seattle team that should have been ahead by one or two on chance creation; the scoreboard read 1-1. The two regulation goals Abby Roque opened the scoring on a Montréal short-handed strike at P2 7:37, with Marie-Philip Poulin the secondary and Nicole Gosling the primary. Seattle was on a five-on-three power play at the time and conceded short-handed instead. The shot priced at 0.10 xG, a clean look the model expects Schroeder's counterpart to save more often than not. Alex Carpenter answered for Seattle at P3 10:11 on a Seattle five-on-four power play, with Theresa Schafzahl on the primary assist and Cayla Barnes on the secondary. Schafzahl is now contributing on the first power-play unit she joined in March; the 0.16-xG goal was finished cleanly through traffic. Regulation closed 1-1 and overtime stayed scoreless. The shootout went Montréal's way. Both goalies finished above expectation Corinne Schroeder faced 37 shots worth 3.34 xG and allowed one. The five-on-three short-handed goal she conceded was on a clean Roque slap shot that the model priced at 0.10 xG; everything else, including the 1.45 xG of Montréal's four power-play looks, she stopped. +2.34 GSAx is a goalie carrying her team to a point her team's offence created as well; the loss is a shootout outcome, not a process loss for Seattle. Ann-Renée Desbiens faced 24 shots worth 2.03 xG and allowed only Carpenter's PP goal. +1.03 GSAx on twenty-four shots is a strong line in absolute terms, and against a 3.40-xG Seattle attack it's the kind of game-stealing performance Montréal needed to take a point home, never mind two. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 7:37 · Abby Roque (PP) · xG 0.09 · SEA 0, MTL 1. P3 10:11 · Alex Carpenter (PP) · xG 0.16 · SEA 1, MTL 1 Special teams: Seattle's PP didn't score; Montréal's PK delivered Seattle drew 4 power-play opportunities and generated 8 shots for 0.66 xG , converting once. Montréal drew 6 and generated 10 shots for 1.43 xG , converting zero times but stealing one back the other way (Roque's short-handed strike). Seattle's PP went 1-for-6, killing a five-on-three advantage and conceding short-handed in the process; the unit will not enjoy reviewing this one. The penalty timeline P1 10:08 · SEA · Megan Carter · Hooking (2 min). P1 14:15 · SEA · Megan Carter · Delay of Game (2 min). P1 16:48 · MTL · Dara Greig · Boarding (2 min). P1 19:57 · MTL · Maggie Flaherty · Cross Checking (2 min). P2 6:29 · SEA · Aneta Tejralová · Holding (2 min). P2 7:13 · SEA · Emily Brown · Ob-Tripping (2 min). P2 15:50 · SEA · Lyndie Lobdell · Ob-Tripping (2 min). P3 3:44 · SEA · Lily Delianedis · Cross Checking (2 min). P3 6:16 · MTL · Dara Greig · Boarding (2 min). P3 8:58 · MTL · Dara Greig · Tripping (2 min) Seattle's looks above 0.08 xG P1 19:24 · Natalie Snodgrass · xG 0.27. P1 19:26 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.17. P1 19:25 · Lexie Adzija · xG 0.17. P3 10:11 · Alex Carpenter (goal) · xG 0.16. P1 1:40 · Julia Gosling · xG 0.13. P3 6:41 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.12. P1 8:07 · Theresa Schafzahl · xG 0.11. P3 9:39 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.10. P1 18:51 · Gabrielle David · xG 0.09 Montréal's looks above 0.08 xG P2 8:07 · Hayley Scamurra · xG 0.42. P1 11:38 · Hayley Scamurra · xG 0.29. OT 3:33 · Shiann Darkangelo · xG 0.27. P3 4:47 · Abby Roque · xG 0.26. P2 11:48 · Natálie Mlýnková · xG 0.21. OT 1:34 · Hayley Scamurra · xG 0.17. P2 8:14 · Shiann Darkangelo · xG 0.15. P2 11:27 · Shiann Darkangelo · xG 0.14. OT 3:32 · Lina Ljungblom · xG 0.13. P2 11:16 · Dara Greig · xG 0.10 What this read isn't Not a claim Montréal was outplayed at five-on-five but somehow lucky. They were outplayed at five-on-five. They also got a goalie performance to match Seattle's, then won a coin flip. Both can be true.. Not a claim the shootout means anything. The xG model has no opinion on shootouts. Seattle and Montréal both went home with goalies above expectation; one team got the second point.. Not a story about Schroeder's season. +2.40 GSAx is a strong single game; her body of work is the more reliable read on her form.. Not a special-teams horror show for Seattle. One conversion on six tries with 1.45 xG of work allowed against on the kill is mediocre, not catastrophic. Conceding short-handed during a 5v3 is a coaching-tape moment, not a season-defining one. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression. See the methodology post . Empty-net shots priced separately.. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per goalie from the PBP feed. Shootout attempts are not in the regulation/overtime xG model and don't affect GSAx.. Corsi and high-danger splits : five-on-five only. PP shots count toward PP xG, not Corsi or HD.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/119 .