3-0: Final (OTT-TOR). 31-41: Shots (OTT-TOR). 2.61-3.44: xG (OTT-TOR). +3.44: Philips GSAx Ottawa closed the regular season the way they've won their best games this year: with goaltending. Toronto generated more — 41 shots to 31 , 3.44 xG to 2.61 , three power-play opportunities to none. Gwyneth Philips stopped all 41 for a +3.44 GSAx , her best single-game line of the season. The win clinched the Charge's playoff seed. Toronto carried the run of play Toronto attempted 40 shots to Ottawa's 36 at five-on-five, won 52.6% of Corsi, and out-xG'd Ottawa 3.44 to 2.61 . Their per-shot pricing was effectively level — 0.084 xG/shot TOR vs 0.084 OTT — but the volume gap (41 to 31) carried the chance edge. The high-danger split was nearly even at 10-9 , with Ottawa actually ahead by one in the dangerous-area count despite the overall xG deficit. Through forty minutes the scoreboard read 1-0 Ottawa on the back of one even-strength goal at P2 4:08. The model's read was that Toronto should have been level or ahead going into the third based on the chance distribution. They weren't — and once Ottawa got the second early in P3, the game tilted on the Sceptres' need to chase volume Philips wasn't going to let through. The three goals, in order Fanuza Kadirova opened the scoring at P2 4:08 from Michela Cava , the only goal of the first forty minutes. Five-on-five, off a rush turn from the half-wall the model priced in the 0.10-0.15 range, a real chance not a freak goal. Sarah Wozniewicz doubled the lead at P3 1:03; the goal that broke the game open. Brianne Jenner took the primary assist on a forecheck recovery into the slot, the kind of high-leverage early-third goal that flips a one-score chase into a two-score chase Toronto couldn't catch with eighteen minutes of regulation left. Toronto pulled Kirk with about three minutes to play; Alexa Vasko sealed it on the empty net at P3 15:38, unassisted, from her own zone. Philips' best line of the season Gwyneth Philips faced 41 shots worth 3.44 xG and stopped every one. +3.44 GSAx on a 41-shot night is a tail outcome and her best single-game line of 2025-26. Toronto's three power plays generated 1.02 xG of work; she stopped all of it. Raygan Kirk 's line was honest at the other end: 30 shots worth 2.61 xG , two goals allowed before the empty net (Vasko's late marker doesn't count against her on the EN exclusion rule), +0.61 GSAx . That's an above-average save line — she was the second-best goalie on the ice tonight and lost anyway, a difficult position to be in on a back-to-back with the season on the line. Single-game GSAx has wide variance; the combined +4.04 on the night is a tail result driven by Philips' end of the ice. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 4:08 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.20 · OTT 1, TOR 0. P3 1:03 · Sarah Wozniewicz · xG 0.09 · OTT 2, TOR 0. P3 15:38 · Alexa Vasko (EN) · xG 0.00 · OTT 3, TOR 0 Special teams: Toronto drew them all, scored none Toronto drew 3 power-play opportunities and generated 8 shots for 1.03 xG . Ottawa drew 0 and took all three of the game's penalties themselves: an Illegal Body Check at P2 5:21, another at P2 11:47, and a hooking minor at P3 6:09. Toronto was the disciplined team. The 1.03-xG PP workload Philips absorbed at full strength was a meaningful PK test, and the unit killed all three minor advantages without conceding. That's the second story of this game: a Toronto power play that put up 1.02 xG and got nothing back, a Charge PK that bailed out an undisciplined night, and a 41-shot shutout from Philips that meant the discipline gap never showed up on the scoreboard. The penalty timeline P2 5:21 · OTT · Taylor House · Illegal Body Checking (2 min). P2 11:47 · OTT · Alexa Vasko · Illegal Body Checking (2 min). P3 6:09 · OTT · Emma Greco · Hooking (2 min) Toronto's looks above 0.08 xG Toronto's quality-look list is long — that's what 3.42 xG looks like. The list includes a handful of high-danger looks the model priced in the 0.20-0.30 range Philips read, found, and stopped. None of the saves on this list were soft. P2 12:52 · Natalie Spooner · xG 0.34. P1 6:06 · Claire Dalton · xG 0.33. P1 0:04 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.19. P2 19:41 · Renata Fast · xG 0.16. P2 13:08 · Jesse Compher · xG 0.16. P2 12:52 · Natalie Spooner · xG 0.15. P2 12:12 · Natalie Spooner · xG 0.14. P1 0:38 · Maggie Connors · xG 0.13. P2 1:21 · Kiara Zanon · xG 0.13. P1 10:00 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.12 Ottawa's looks above 0.08 xG P2 4:06 · Michela Cava · xG 0.28. P1 17:02 · Rebecca Leslie · xG 0.26. P2 4:08 · Fanuza Kadirova (goal) · xG 0.20. P2 15:55 · Emily Clark · xG 0.16. P3 5:36 · Rebecca Leslie · xG 0.16. P2 8:43 · Kateřina Mrázová · xG 0.13. P2 8:48 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.13. P3 13:33 · Sarah Wozniewicz · xG 0.12. P1 1:39 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.11. P3 1:03 · Sarah Wozniewicz (goal) · xG 0.09 What this read isn't Not a claim Ottawa was the better team for sixty minutes. They weren't. By chance creation Toronto carried the play; the Charge generated the slightly more dangerous looks (HD edge by one) but conceded volume and PP work. The result is what it is because the goalie at one end was unbeatable and the team at the other end took its three best chances and finished them.. Not an indictment of Toronto's offence. 3.42 xG with three PP opportunities is exactly the workload they were built to deliver. They ran into a goalie having a top-decile night to close out the season.. Not a claim Kirk played poorly. Two goals on 2.59 xG is roughly par; her single-game GSAx was modestly positive. She was the second-best goalie tonight and lost anyway — a difficult position to be in on a back-to-back with the season on the line.. Not the read on Ottawa's playoff form. One game's worth of goaltending is a tail event by definition. The Charge head into the post-season with the seed they wanted; her body-of-work GSAx for 2025-26 is the more reliable read on what to expect in round one than any single game on either tail. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (3 s or less), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model.. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Vasko's empty-netter is excluded from Kirk's xGA on the EN exclusion rule.. Corsi and high-danger splits : computed at five-on-five only. Power-play shots land in the PP xG columns, not the Corsi or high-danger columns.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/118 .