5-4: Final (SEA-MIN). 28-42: Shots (SEA-MIN). 2.10-3.31: xG (SEA-MIN). -3.60: Combined GSAx Minnesota carried this game for forty minutes by every process measure the model tracks. The Frost out-shot the Torrent 42 to 28 , out-xG'd them 3.31 to 2.10 , won 59.8% of five-on-five Corsi and 50.8% of the faceoffs. They lost 5-4 because Nicole Hensley stopped 23 of 28 for a -2.90 GSAx — and because Seattle scored four times in 47 minutes starting in the second period. The chance map was Minnesota's Minnesota attempted 55 shots to Seattle's 37 at five-on-five and put 42 of them on net to Seattle's 28. The high-danger split was even at 8-8 , but Minnesota generated more outside-the-slot volume — 0.079 xG/shot MIN vs 0.075 SEA . The model's read on regulation was a Frost team that should have been ahead going into the third on the chance distribution alone. The total xG delta was +1.21 in Minnesota's favour — a number that, on average, is worth a one-goal regulation win. The scoreboard moved the other way because of the line the goalie at one end posted: Seattle finished 5 on 2.10 xG , and Minnesota finished 4 on 3.31 xG . Both teams converted above expectation, but the gap widened in Seattle's favour shot-by-shot — Murphy stopped enough middling-danger looks to keep the door open while Hensley let in everything. The goals, in order Taylor Heise opened the scoring at P1 4:35 — five-on-five, two assists from Katy Knoll and Kendall Cooper, the kind of early-period look the Frost have manufactured all year on entries through the middle. Seattle answered on a power play at P1 14:12 with Aneta Tejralová 's five-on-four goal, Anna Wilgren and Julia Gosling on the helpers. Two minutes into the second, Grace Zumwinkle put Minnesota back ahead at 5-on-5 from Kendall Coyne Schofield and Kelly Pannek . Then Seattle struck twice in eleven seconds: Alex Carpenter at P2 8:12 (assists from Theresa Schafzahl — her first multi-point game in Seattle since the Boston trade — and Wilgren), then Gabrielle David at P2 8:23 to make it 3-2. Heise's second goal came at P2 17:41 on the power play, assists from Lee Stecklein and Kelly Pannek, tying the game 3-3. Seattle took control in the third. Hilary Knight restored the lead at P3 2:29 from Schafzahl and Carpenter — the second of Schafzahl's two assists. Anna Wilgren added what proved to be the winner at P3 11:42, her second point of the game. Kelly Pannek pulled one back at P3 19:46 from Britta Curl-Salemme and Lee Stecklein with Hensley on the bench, but the Frost ran out of shifts. Hensley's worst single-game line of the season Nicole Hensley faced 28 shots worth 2.10 xG and allowed five. A -2.90 GSAx is a tail outcome, well outside the band of routine starter variance. The underlying shots she faced weren't unfair to her: Seattle's five goals all sat in the 0.05-0.20 xG range the model would price at league-average save rates of 85-95%. Five in a row beating expectation is the definition of a bad night, not a process gap. Hannah Murphy 's line at the other end was less forgiving than the 4-allowed scoreboard: 42 shots worth 3.31 xG , four allowed, -0.69 GSAx . Murphy gave up an empty-netter that the model would exclude on a separate fit, so her even-strength line is closer to neutral. She did not steal the game — she let her team's goalie at the other end hand it over. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 4:35 · Taylor Heise · xG 0.12 · SEA 0, MIN 1. P1 14:12 · Aneta Tejralová (PP) · xG 0.13 · SEA 1, MIN 1. P2 1:12 · Grace Zumwinkle · xG 0.09 · SEA 1, MIN 2. P2 8:12 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.21 · SEA 2, MIN 2. P2 8:23 · Gabrielle David · xG 0.16 · SEA 3, MIN 2. P2 17:41 · Taylor Heise (PP) · xG 0.05 · SEA 3, MIN 3. P3 2:29 · Hilary Knight · xG 0.07 · SEA 4, MIN 3. P3 11:42 · Anna Wilgren · xG 0.04 · SEA 5, MIN 3. P3 19:46 · Kelly Pannek · xG 0.28 · SEA 5, MIN 4 Special teams: a wash on chances, one PP conversion each side Minnesota drew 2 power-play opportunities and generated 3 shots for 0.19 xG . Seattle drew 2 and generated 1 shot for 0.13 xG . Tejralová converted on Seattle's first power play at P1 14:12; Heise converted on Minnesota's at P2 17:41. Each team went 1-for-2 with the man advantage, and the chance-creation totals were close enough to call a wash. The penalty timeline P1 12:20 · MIN · Klára Hymlárová · Hooking (2 min). P2 17:16 · SEA · Emily Brown · Holding (2 min). P3 13:53 · SEA · Lyndie Lobdell · Illegal Body Checking (2 min). P3 14:49 · MIN · Kelly Pannek · Tripping (2 min) Minnesota's looks above 0.08 xG The Frost's quality looks list is long — that's what a 3.33-xG night looks like. Heise's two goals are on it; so are several non-scoring wrist shots from the slot Murphy stopped that, on average, beat a goalie more often than they don't. P3 19:30 · Britta Curl-Salemme · xG 0.29. P3 19:46 · Kelly Pannek (goal) · xG 0.28. P1 8:52 · Peyton Anderson · xG 0.18. P2 9:10 · Taylor Heise · xG 0.16. P2 9:12 · Katy Knoll · xG 0.15. P1 11:26 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.14. P3 19:40 · Taylor Heise · xG 0.13. P3 19:39 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.13. P2 3:51 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.12. P1 4:35 · Taylor Heise (goal) · xG 0.12 Seattle's looks above 0.08 xG P1 3:55 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.24. P2 8:12 · Alex Carpenter (goal) · xG 0.21. P2 8:10 · Alex Carpenter · xG 0.16. P2 8:23 · Gabrielle David (goal) · xG 0.16. P2 4:43 · Mikyla Grant-Mentis · xG 0.14. P1 14:12 · Aneta Tejralová (goal) · xG 0.13. P1 3:54 · Cayla Barnes · xG 0.12. P2 4:24 · Natalie Snodgrass · xG 0.10 What this read isn't Not a claim Seattle was passive. They generated 2.09 xG in their own building against a team built to suppress chances. Carpenter, Knight, and Schafzahl all earned multi-point nights against a real workload.. Not a referendum on Hensley's season. Single-game GSAx has wide variance; -2.91 is a tail draw, not a trend reading. Her body-of-work line for 2025-26 stands on its own without one bad night reshaping it.. Not a claim the xG model under-rated Seattle's goals. All five goals priced at 0.05-0.20 xG — perfectly ordinary save-rate bins. Scoring five on 2.09 xG is a finishing run from Seattle and a save run from Minnesota that broke the wrong way.. Not a referendum on Schafzahl's trade fit. A two-assist night with the Wilgren-Carpenter-Knight unit is exactly what Seattle had in mind when they took her in the Eldridge swap. One game; we'll have a season's worth at PWHL of 2026-27 to read whether the projection holds. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (3 s or less), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model.. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Hensley was pulled for the empty-netter that Pannek converted at P3 19:46 from MIN's bench — that goal does not count against Murphy in this fit; the empty-net exclusion is applied symmetrically.. Corsi and high-danger splits : computed at five-on-five only. Power-play shots land in the PP xG columns, not the Corsi or high-danger columns.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/116 .