1-2 OT: Final (BOS-OTT). 25-19: Shots (BOS-OTT). 2.21-1.55: xG (BOS-OTT). +0.76: Combined GSAx Boston controlled this game on every process measure the model tracks. The Fleet out-shot the Charge 25 to 19 , out-xG'd them 2.21 to 1.55 , out-chanced them 9 to 5 on high-danger looks, won 63.8% of five-on-five Corsi and 59.3% of the faceoffs. They lost 2-1 in overtime because Gwyneth Philips stopped 24 of 25 for a +1.21 GSAx , and because Brianne Jenner beat Aerin Frankel on a slap shot from the top of the circle at P4 3:46 the model had priced at 0.13 xG . Process was Boston's on every line Boston attempted 30 shots to Ottawa's 17 at five-on-five, put 25 of them on net to Ottawa's 19, and generated their best looks at a higher per-shot rate ( 0.088 xG/shot BOS vs 0.082 OTT ). The high-danger split favoured the Fleet nearly two-to-one (9-5). On a night where Boston also won the faceoff dot 59.3% of the time, the model's read is that this was a game they should have been ahead in by two at the intermission and were not. The total xG delta was +0.66 in Boston's favour — a number that rolls in about one game in four at even strength with both teams healthy. The scoreboard moved the other way because the three goals that went in were all relatively middling-danger: 0.43 xG of combined scoring-shot quality on three goals, which is a low-probability run on both sides and an outcome that tracks the finishing and goaltending rather than the chance profile. The three goals, in order Boston opened the scoring at P2 8:40: Abby Newhook tucked a backhand past Philips from in tight, with Jessie Eldridge and Megan Keller on the helpers. The model priced the shot at 0.17 xG — a middle-of-the-range look from the slot, the kind a league-average goalie saves about 83% of the time. Philips did not. Through forty minutes of game time the Fleet led 1-0 on 17 shots and the Charge were at 9, matching a volume story the xG curves trace out on the chart below. Ottawa's equalizer came at P3 8:22: Rebecca Leslie tipped a Rory Guilday point shot past Frankel at five-on-five, with Jenner tagged for the primary assist. The tip read as 0.13 xG — a net-front redirection priced in the 12-15% range depending on the initial-shot location. Leslie's goal was her second scoring contribution of the night; she had already put a 0.20 xG slap shot at P1 7:12 on net during a four-on-four sequence that Frankel stopped. Jenner's overtime winner came at P4 3:46 , 3 minutes 46 seconds into the extra period. A slap shot from the top of the circle, Ronja Savolainen with the primary assist, priced at 0.13 xG . The location and shot type suggest a clean look but not a close one — the sort of shot that beats Frankel roughly 13% of the time on the model's fit. She has stopped the other 87% most of this season; on this one, she did not. Philips stole it, cleanly Gwyneth Philips faced 25 shots worth 2.21 xG and allowed one. Her +1.21 GSAx on the night is the sort of line that rolls in roughly one game in fifteen for a starter: a full goal above expectation with workload actually thrown at her, not a quiet night in the crease. Boston's two biggest non-goal looks were a Shay Maloney slap shot at P4 1:00 priced at 0.21 xG — Boston's best chance of the entire game, in overtime, on the doorstep of a win — and a Liz Schepers four-on-four wrist shot at P2 14:27 priced at 0.18 xG . Philips stopped both. She also stopped tips and rebound looks from Newhook, Maloney, and Susanna Tapani that the model priced between 0.10 and 0.15. That is a save line of ordinary and high-danger shots alike, not a perimeter workload. Aerin Frankel 's line was less kind: 19 shots worth 1.55 xG , two allowed. Her -0.45 GSAx reflects a net-front tip and a 0.13 xG overtime slap she would stop more often than not. Neither goal was a goalie-talent indictment on the shot type; the pattern of two goals on 1.56 xG is simply the opposite tail from Philips's +1.24. Single-game GSAx has wide variance; the combined +0.76 on the night is a tail result on both ends of the ice. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P2 8:40 · Abby Newhook · xG 0.17 · BOS 1, OTT 0. P3 8:22 · Rebecca Leslie · xG 0.13 · BOS 1, OTT 1. OT 3:46 · Brianne Jenner · xG 0.13 · BOS 1, OTT 2 Special teams: sterile on both sides Boston drew 4 power-play opportunities and generated 1 shot for 0.03 xG . Ottawa drew 6 and generated 4 shots for 0.29 xG . Neither unit scored. The combined 0-for-10 with 0.32 total xG is a sterile special-teams night — Ottawa's PK killed a minor advantage and Boston's PK killed a bigger one (the Ottawa unit took six trips and got four shots off). In a one-goal overtime game the special-teams wash matters less than usual; neither team lost the game at that phase. The penalty timeline P1 6:45 · BOS · Loren Gabel · Holding (2 min). P1 6:45 · OTT · Kathryn Reilly · Holding (2 min). P1 15:21 · BOS · Rylind MacKinnon · Elbowing (2 min). P2 9:16 · BOS · Loren Gabel · Illegal Body Checking (2 min). P2 12:31 · OTT · Peyton Hemp · Tripping (2 min). P2 13:22 · BOS · Abby Newhook · Interference (2 min). P3 2:49 · OTT · Alexa Vasko · Roughing (2 min). P3 2:49 · BOS · Hannah Brandt · Roughing (2 min). P3 3:27 · BOS · Alina Müller · Check to the Head (Accidental) (2 min). P3 12:03 · OTT · Kateřina Mrázová · High Sticking (2 min) Boston's looks above 0.08 xG Every Fleet attempt priced at 0.08 xG or higher. The Newhook goal sits in the middle of the list at 0.17; Maloney's overtime slap shot at 0.21 was the highest-priced non-goal of the whole game. Philips saved everything on the list except the Newhook backhand. OT 1:00 · Shay Maloney · xG 0.20. P2 14:27 · Liz Schepers · xG 0.18. P2 8:40 · Abby Newhook (goal) · xG 0.17. P1 10:44 · Shay Maloney · xG 0.15. P1 4:12 · Riley Brengman · xG 0.14. OT 2:08 · Liz Schepers · xG 0.14. P3 6:13 · Susanna Tapani · xG 0.13. P2 0:26 · Jill Saulnier · xG 0.13. OT 3:29 · Susanna Tapani · xG 0.11. P2 11:35 · Abby Newhook · xG 0.11 Ottawa's looks above 0.08 xG P1 7:12 · Rebecca Leslie · xG 0.20. OT 1:31 · Kateřina Mrázová · xG 0.14. P3 3:51 · Emily Clark · xG 0.14. P3 16:02 · Kateřina Mrázová · xG 0.14. P3 8:22 · Rebecca Leslie (goal) · xG 0.13. P2 1:53 · Fanuza Kadirova · xG 0.13. OT 3:46 · Brianne Jenner (goal) · xG 0.13. P1 10:09 · Sarah Wozniewicz · xG 0.12 What this read isn't Not a claim Ottawa was outplayed on every shift. They weren't — the chance profile tilts Boston on volume, but Ottawa's two scoring shots (0.13 and 0.13 xG) came on a clean net-front redirection and a clean look from the top of the circle. The quality distribution behind those two chances is perfectly reasonable; they just weren't the majority of what got generated.. Not an indictment of Frankel's season. A -0.44 night on two goals allowed is well within single-game variance. Goalie talent reads from rolling sv%-vs-expected, not one-game GSAx; Frankel's season-level line tells the reliable story.. Not a claim Boston played badly. By the model they played one of their better games of the year: xG edge, HD edge, Corsi edge, faceoff edge, and a shot-volume edge. The result is a loss because Philips finished above expectation by more than Frankel finished below it.. Not a claim the xG model underrated the two Ottawa goals. 0.13 / 0.13 are exactly the prices the model gives tip-ins and point slappers from those locations. Two middling-danger goals in a row is uncommon; it is not mispricing. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (3 s or less), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model.. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Both goalies played the entire game; no EN exclusion applies because no goalie was pulled.. Corsi and high-danger splits : computed at five-on-five only. Power-play shots land in the PP xG columns, not the Corsi or high-danger columns. Overtime attempts are included in Corsi and xG totals.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/115 .