0-2: Final (MIN). 24-24: Shots (MIN-TOR). 1.91-1.89: xG (MIN-TOR). 0/5 vs 2/3: PP (MIN vs TOR) Almost nothing separated the two teams at the shot level. Both sides took 24 shots . Both sides generated 1.91 xG . Per-shot quality was 0.080 for Minnesota and 0.079 for Toronto, the same number to three decimals. The scoreboard read 2-0. All of the separation sits on the goaltenders' line and on one power-play sequence in the opening five minutes. The goaltending gap was the game Raygan Kirk faced 24 shots worth 1.91 xG and stopped all of them. Her GSAx for the night was +1.91 , roughly two expected goals above what a league-average goalie would concede on that shot profile. Minnesota's best look of the game was a Kendall Coyne Schofield power-play wrister at P1 11:25 the model priced at 0.32 xG , the highest-probability shot by either team. Kirk turned it aside. So did she with Grace Zumwinkle 's 0.17 xG chance at P3 2:32 and every other shot over 0.10 xG. Maddie Rooney faced an identical 24 shots worth 1.89 xG and allowed two. Her GSAx was -0.11 , within a tenth of league-average. On an average night against that workload, a PWHL goalie concedes about two goals. Rooney did. The combined GSAx swing across the two netminders was roughly +2.02 expected goals in Toronto's favour, which is enough to account for the entire two-goal margin and then some. The opening goal was priced at 0.03 Minnesota took the game's first penalty at P1 4:22 , Katy Knoll for kneeing. Three seconds later, at P1 4:25 , Savannah Harmon scored from the point on a wrist shot the model priced at 0.031 xG , a look the average PWHL shooter converts about one time in thirty. It was flagged by the scorer tagger as a non-quality goal. Seven minutes later, on the reverse power play, Minnesota put up the highest-xG shot of the night: Kendall Coyne Schofield from the top of the circle at P1 11:25, priced at 0.324 xG . Kirk stopped it. Those two shots capture the whole game: one team cashed a one-in-thirty look; the other was denied a one-in-three. Minnesota's 0-for-5 power play Toronto took five minor penalties to Minnesota's three . The Frost got 5 power-play opportunities , generated 7 shots worth 0.74 xG , and scored none of them. Kirk saw the 0.32 xG Coyne Schofield look early, plus mostly perimeter shots the rest of the way. Toronto's own power play, on 3 opportunities , generated 0.98 xG on 6 shots and converted twice. Per-shot, the Toronto power play ( 0.163 xG per shot) concentrated quality better than the Minnesota power play ( 0.106 ). Blayre Turnbull alone had three Toronto power-play shots in the third period priced at 0.20, 0.21, and 0.15 xG , all stopped by Rooney. The power-play goal that stuck came seventy-seven seconds after Minnesota's late cross-checking minor: Daryl Watts from the slot on a backhand, 0.305 xG , flagged as a quality chance. That was the only shot on the night from either team that combined a mid-slot location with a finishing-rate above thirty percent. Run of play was Minnesota's At five-on-five, Minnesota held 55.1% of Corsi (Toronto at 44.9% ) and won faceoffs 64.3% overall ( 36 of 56 ). The Frost were the territorial side. The high-danger 5-on-5 split favoured Toronto ( 4 to 6 ) because most of the Sceptres' inner-slot looks came on their three power plays and on the rebound sequences that followed them. At true five-on-five, quality was roughly even and volume leaned Minnesota. The quality that actually produced goals came on special teams, and only for one side. The game in cumulative xG The scoring timeline P1 4:25 · Savannah Harmon (PP) · xG 0.03 · MIN 0, TOR 1. P3 18:02 · Daryl Watts (PP) · xG 0.30 · MIN 0, TOR 2 Minnesota's best non-goals The chances Kirk turned aside. Every entry is a shot the model graded at 0.07 xG or higher, about a 7% average-shooter conversion rate. The list is top-heavy: the Coyne Schofield 0.32 xG look in the first period is a full multiple of everything else. P1 11:25 · Kendall Coyne Schofield · xG 0.34. P3 2:32 · Grace Zumwinkle · xG 0.16. P2 8:38 · Abby Hustler · xG 0.14. P2 2:25 · Britta Curl-Salemme · xG 0.12. P1 16:24 · Grace Zumwinkle · xG 0.12. P2 3:28 · Samantha Cogan · xG 0.10 Toronto's best non-goals P3 6:59 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.21. P3 6:43 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.19. P3 17:59 · Blayre Turnbull · xG 0.15. P1 13:54 · Emma Gentry · xG 0.12. P1 14:42 · Elaine Chuli · xG 0.11. P3 4:31 · Sara Hjalmarsson · xG 0.10 The penalty timeline P1 4:22 · MIN · Katy Knoll · Kneeing (2 min). P1 9:28 · TOR · Clara Van Wieren · Hooking (2 min). P1 18:06 · TOR · Clara Van Wieren · Slashing (2 min). P2 6:35 · TOR · Jesse Compher · Interference (2 min). P2 18:40 · TOR · Emma Gentry · Slashing (2 min). P3 2:08 · TOR · Kiara Zanon · Hooking (2 min). P3 6:05 · MIN · Jincy Roese · Interference (2 min). P3 16:45 · MIN · Katy Knoll · Cross Checking (2 min) What this read isn't Not a claim Toronto outplayed Minnesota. The xG totals were identical, the shot counts were identical, and Minnesota held 55% of Corsi. Every underlying indicator either matched or favoured the Frost.. Not a Rooney-had-a-bad-night story. Her GSAx was essentially zero. On average, a PWHL goalie handed 24 shots worth 1.92 xG concedes two goals. She conceded two.. Not a dependable Kirk forecast. A plus-1.91 GSAx night is a tail outcome, not a repeatable baseline. The same workload on a different night produces a different result. Single-game GSAx has wide variance and should be read as evidence this game swung, not as a projection.. Not a special-teams volume story. Minnesota had more power-play time and generated more power-play shots. The story is not that the Frost failed to draw penalties or that the Sceptres overwhelmed them on the man advantage. It is that one 0.03 xG opening shot went in. Methodology xG model : PWHL-calibrated logistic regression on 16,709 non-EN shots. Same fit as the methodology post . Features: distance, angle, rebound (3 s or less), penalty shot, power play, overtime, scorer-tagged quality chance, seven shot-type dummies. Empty-net shots are priced outside the main model.. GSAx : summed xG on shots faced minus goals allowed, computed per-goalie from the PBP feed. Empty-net shots and goals are excluded on both sides.. Corsi and high-danger splits : computed at five-on-five only. Power-play shots land in the PP xG columns, not the Corsi or high-danger columns.. Numbers regenerate on every build. A PBP re-sync or xG recalibration reshapes every figure in this post on the next static export. Full play-by-play, shift overlays, and the per-player game log for this game are at /games/112 .